FPG EURUSD Market Report March 3, 2026

On the H1 timeframe chart, EURUSD had been moving steadily within a sideways channel for several weeks before finally experiencing a significant price breakdown. This bearish momentum started from 1.1795 and dropped sharply to 1.1671. Following that decline, the pair staged a technical bounce and began stabilizing, with the current price hovering around 1.1689 under moderate volatility conditions. Although short-term consolidation is visible, the broader structure remains bearish after the decisive break below the previous range support.

From a technical perspective, price action is currently trading near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating that bearish pressure remains dominant, though the bands have started to slightly contract, suggesting a potential pause in momentum. The MFI (14) is hovering around the 20–30 area, reflecting weak buying pressure and limited capital inflow, with no strong bullish divergence visible at this stage. Meanwhile, the MACD (12,26,9) remains in negative territory below the zero line, with histogram bars still printing on the downside, signaling sustained bearish momentum. However, the histogram appears to be gradually flattening, which may indicate slowing downside momentum and the possibility of short-term consolidation before the next directional move.

Recent EURUSD movements have been influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have contributed to the strengthening of the US Dollar, alongside expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance amid relatively solid US economic data. On the other hand, concerns over slowing Eurozone economic growth, as well as continued pressure on the industrial and energy sectors, have weighed on the Euro. The combination of these macroeconomic and geopolitical factors has reinforced the bearish bias and maintained downward pressure on the EURUSD pair in the near term.

Market Observation & Strategy Advice

1. Current Position: EURUSD trades around 1.1689 after breaking below its prior range. The short-term bias remains bearish despite minor consolidation.

2. Resistance Zone: Immediate resistance is at 1.1765, followed by 1.1795. A break above 1.1765 may trigger a corrective rebound.

3. Support Zone: Key support stands at 1.1671. A breakdown below this level could open room toward 1.1650.

4. Indicator Observation: Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, indicating continued bearish pressure. MFI (14) is near the lower zone (20–30), reflecting weak buying interest. MACD remains below the zero line with negative histogram bars, signaling sustained bearish momentum, though slightly moderating.

5. Trading Strategy Suggestions:

• Bearish Scenario: Sell on rallies below 1.1765, targeting 1.1671–1.1650.
• Bullish Correction: A confirmed H1 break above 1.1765 may open room toward 1.1795.
• Range Strategy: Trade within 1.1671–1.1765 until a clear breakout occurs.

Market Performance: 

Forex Last Price % Change

USD/JPY   157.42  +0.05%

GBP/USD  1.3409  +0.03%

Today’s Key Economic Calendar:

AU: RBA Bullock Speech 

JP: Unemployment Rate

JP: Capital Spending YoY

AU: Building Permits MoM Preliminary

JP: BoJ Gov Ueda Speech

EU: Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash

EU: Inflation Rate MoM & YoY Flash

UK: Spring Economic Statement

US: Fed Williams & Kashkari Speeches

Risk Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investments involve risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial advisor for personalized investment strategies.

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