🌅 MORNING UPDATE — April 2, 2026 📊 NordFX Market Briefing

02 Apr 2026, 14:36 · Views 605

🌅 MORNING UPDATE — April 2, 2026 📊 NordFX Market Briefing

🛢️ OIL SURGES ON TRUMP SPEECH President Trump delivered a prime-time national address Wednesday night, vowing to hit Iran "extremely hard" over the next 2–3 weeks — reversing Tuesday's peace optimism. Brent crude jumped over 5% to above $106/barrel, while WTI rose nearly 4.8% to around $104.89. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, keeping global supply severely disrupted. Markets had briefly rallied on Tuesday after Trump hinted at winding down operations — only to be jolted again by the escalation address.

🌏 ASIAN MARKETS — IN THE RED Trump's speech whipsawed Asian markets that had just staged a massive relief rally on Tuesday's peace hopes.

Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 2.3%, the Topix dropped 1.5%. South Korea's KOSPI plunged 4.25%, with the small-cap KOSDAQ down 4.71% — both had opened over 1% higher before the speech hit. Hong Kong's Hang Seng down ~1.0% to around 25,038. Singapore's STI fell 0.63%. India's GIFT Nifty futures pointed 361 points lower, with markets closing Friday for Good Friday.

US futures joined the selloff — S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures both down over 1%, Dow futures off ~440 points.

⚡ Every Trump statement is moving indexes by several percent in either direction — volatility is extreme.

📉 WALL STREET — WEDNESDAY CLOSE The S&P 500 closed up 0.72% at 6,575, the Nasdaq gained 1.16%, and the Dow added 224 points to 46,565 — before Trump's speech reversed the mood overnight.

💱 FOREX EUR/USD extended its rebound toward 1.1600, capitalizing on a softer USD as risk-on flows dominated the earlier Wednesday session. GBP/USD climbed above 1.3250–1.3300. Safe-haven demand is now returning post-speech, with the USD and JPY likely to reclaim ground. USD/JPY trading in the ~158–160 range.

🥇 GOLD Trading around $4,758/oz, with bullish momentum supported by geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing Middle East tensions. Remains near record territory, with major banks forecasting further upside through 2026.

₿ BITCOIN BTC consolidating near $66,830–$66,940, dipping slightly in Asian trade as risk-off sentiment returns.

⚠️ ON THE RADAR TODAY 📌 US Initial Jobless Claims 📌 Any Iran/Hormuz ceasefire developments 📌 Friday NFP — major volatility expected 📌 Many markets closed Friday (Good Friday)

📈 Trade smart. Stay informed. 🔗 NordFX — Your partner in every market

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🌅 Morning Update | March 25, 2026 Markets start the day cautiously positive after reports of a potential ceasefire framework between the U.S. and Iran. The news helped lift global equities and ease oil prices, but uncertainty remains high as conflicting signals continue from both sides. 📈 Equities Wall Street closed slightly lower on Tuesday, pressured by rising yields and energy-driven inflation concerns. Dow: 46,124 (-0.18%) S&P 500: 6,556 (-0.37%) Nasdaq: 21,761 (-0.84%) This morning, sentiment is improving: U.S. and European futures are higher, while Asian markets posted strong gains, led by Japan (+3%). 💱 Forex Currency markets remain stable. The dollar is holding firm as expectations of prolonged high interest rates continue to support it. EUR/USD: ~1.16 GBP/USD: ~1.34 USD/JPY: ~158.9 🛢 Commodities Oil remains the key driver. Prices dropped sharply (~5%) to around $99/barrel on easing geopolitical fears. Gold is higher (+1.5%) as investors continue to hedge uncertainty, while U.S. 10-year yields eased slightly to ~4.35%. ₿ Crypto Crypto is stabilizing alongside broader risk sentiment. Bitcoin: ~$71,000 Ethereum: ~$2,160 Still, crypto remains highly sensitive to macro trends like rates and liquidity. 🌏 Macro Focus Softer Australian inflation data offered temporary relief, but rising oil prices continue to pose upside risks to global inflation. 👀 What to Watch Today Markets remain driven by three key factors: 1️⃣ Geopolitical headlines 2️⃣ Oil price movements 3️⃣ Interest rate expectations 🚀 Bottom Line Markets are attempting a rebound, but confidence remains fragile. Expect continued volatility and fast reactions to headlines. Stay sharp, trade smart, and move with the market - with NordFX. 🔵

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Economic Calendar 13 - 17 April, 2026

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🔥 Real Yields vs Nominal Yields: What Drives Gold (XAU/USD)? Gold is not driven by headlines alone. The key driver is real yields 📊 The Core Mechanism Nominal yields = bond yields Real yields = nominal yields minus inflation expectations 👉 Gold follows real yields, because it does not pay interest 💡 Current Market Reality (2026) Inflation expectations remain sensitive due to oil volatility linked to Iran tensions Central banks, especially the Fed, remain cautious on rate cuts Nominal yields stay relatively elevated ➡️ This keeps real yields high 📉 Result: Gold has struggled to sustain upside despite geopolitical risk 🧠 Key Insight Many traders misunderstand this: Rising inflation alone is not bullish for gold What matters is the balance: ✔️ Inflation rising faster than rates → real yields fall → gold up ❌ Rates staying high → real yields stay elevated → gold pressured 👉 Right now: policy is restrictive enough to limit gold upside 📊 Why CPI Matters CPI directly impacts: Inflation expectations Rate cut expectations Real yields ➡️ Which ultimately drives XAU/USD Market reaction framework: Hot CPI → fewer rate cuts → bearish gold Soft CPI → easing expectations → bullish gold ⚔️ Macro vs Geopolitics Even with ongoing tensions: USD remains strong Real yields dominate price action 👉 Macro is currently outweighing safe-haven demand 🚀 What to Watch 📌 US CPI data 📌 Fed policy signals 📌 Real yields (TIPS) 📌 Oil-driven inflation pressure 📢 Trade gold with NordFX 👉 https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis... 💬 Summary Gold tracks real yields, not just inflation High real yields = pressure on XAU/USD CPI and Fed expectations are the key triggers

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🌍 NORDFX MORNING UPDATE | April 8, 2026 🕊️ CEASEFIRE SHOCK ROCKS MARKETS OVERNIGHT In a dramatic late-Tuesday twist, President Trump announced a two-week US-Iran ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, just 90 minutes before his 8 PM ET strike deadline. Markets exploded into action: 🛢️ OIL — Historic Plunge After trading as high as ~$117 intraday on Tuesday, crude prices cratered on the ceasefire news. WTI: ~$94/bbl (−16% overnight) 📉 Brent: ~$92/bbl (−15% overnight) 📉 The biggest single-day oil price collapse since the 1991 Gulf War. Still, Brent remains well above pre-war levels (~$73). The Strait of Hormuz reopening is a condition of the deal — full supply normalization may take months. 🥇 GOLD — Rising on Dollar Weakness Gold climbed to a three-week high in Asian trading Wednesday as the dollar weakened on the ceasefire news. Gold: ~$4,814/oz (spot, late Tuesday/early Wednesday) ⬆️ Silver also rallied +4.6% on the announcement. 📈 EQUITIES — Risk-On Surge S&P 500 futures soared more than 2.5%, Dow futures spiked ~1,000 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped nearly 3%. Asian & European markets set to open sharply higher. 💱 FOREX USD: Under pressure as risk appetite returns and safe-haven demand fades EUR/USD: Holding firm, range ~1.1550 area; Middle East calm = EUR-supportive USD/JPY: Trading near 160.00; interest rate differential remains the key driver 🇯🇵 📅 TODAY'S KEY EVENTS 🔹 FOMC Minutes release — watch for Fed policy clues 🔹 ADP Employment Change — labor market pulse 🔹 Markets globally pricing in 2–3 Fed rate cuts in 2026 ⚠️ WATCH OUT: The ceasefire is conditional — Iran must allow complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts warn two weeks may not be enough to normalize oil supply. Volatility remains elevated. Trade smart. 🧠 📊 Trade with NordFX — your trusted partner in global markets.

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