🌍 THE BIG PICTURE The US-Iran war (ongoing since Feb. 28) continues to dominate every market. Today, Trump's Hormuz deadline expires — he's demanded Iran reopen the Strait or face strikes on power infrastructure. Meanwhile, fresh hope: Iran's President said the country is "ready to end the war," and a 45-day ceasefire framework is reportedly being discussed via Pakistan, Egypt & Turkey. Markets are cautiously optimistic but jumpy.
💵 FOREX EUR/USD ~1.153 | GBP/USD ~1.32 | USD/JPY ~159.60 Dollar rebounded mid-week on hawkish Fed signals. Zero probability of an April rate cut priced in by CME markets. Stagflation fears keep the USD supported despite war-driven uncertainty.
📊 US STOCKS & NFP Markets closed Good Friday. Last closes (Apr. 2): 🔵 S&P 500 6,583 | Dow 46,505 | Nasdaq 21,879 March NFP crushed forecasts: +178k jobs vs +60k expected, unemployment fell to 4.3%. Strong data = hawkish Fed fears. US futures slipped overnight: Dow futures -0.5%, S&P & Nasdaq futures -0.6–0.7%.
🌏 ASIAN MARKETS Most closed today — Hong Kong, China (Qingming Festival), Australia & New Zealand (Easter Monday). 🇯🇵 Nikkei 225 +0.62% (~53,100) | 🇰🇷 Kospi +1.80% Both rising on ceasefire hopes, though gains are capped by Trump's fresh threats overnight. Nikkei has lost ~13% since Iran war began, hit hard by surging oil import costs and Yen weakness past ¥159.
🟡 GOLD ~$4,665–4,677 Expected range today: $4,577–$4,761. Torn between war risk pushing it up and strong dollar/yields pulling it down. FOMC Minutes (Apr. 8) and CPI data are the key catalysts this week. Institutional targets: $5,000–$6,300 by year-end.
🛢️ OIL Brent ~$109 | WTI ~$111 — WTI has flipped above Brent for the first time in years. Hormuz blockade chokes ~20% of global oil supply. A confirmed ceasefire could trigger an immediate sharp drop. OECD forecasts US CPI hitting 4.2% by year-end if prices stay elevated.
₿ CRYPTO Bitcoin bounced to ~$69,165 today on ceasefire headlines, up from a ~$66,000 weekend low. Fear & Greed Index still deep in extreme fear (8–14). BTC has been pinballing between $60k–$73k for 5 weeks, reacting mechanically to war/peace headlines. Altcoins (ETH, SOL, XRP) remain in the red for the week.
📅 THIS WEEK 📌 Apr. 7 — ADP Employment 📌 Apr. 8 — FOMC Minutes + US CPI (March) 📌 Today — Iran Hormuz deadline ⚠️
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