EBC Markets Briefing | Lira in a hole; Oracle shares jumped

The Turkish Lira languished around its record low on Tuesday, after the US began blocking ships from entering or exiting Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, attempting to bring Iran back to the table.

Credit rating agency Fitch revised Turkey's outlook to "stable" from "positive", citing a sharp erosion in forex reserves due to heavy intervention to support the lira and rising risks from the Iran conflict.

The agency flagged persistent macroeconomic ⁠vulnerabilities, including high inflation, large external financing needs and weak reserve buffers despite earlier improvements.

Consumer prices growth fell to 30.87% in March, compared to 31.53% in February. S&P Global hiked its ‌inflation forecast to an average of nearly 29% for this year mostly due to surging energy prices.

Turkey imports roughly 90% of its energy, making it one of the most exposed economies among major emerging markets. The government is preparing to raise electricity and natural gas prices to reduce subsidy costs.

Erdogan on Sunday accused Israel of carrying out atrocities against Palestine and Lebanon and threatened military action against the Jewish state, similar to its past interventions in Karabakh and Libya.

The Lira moved constantly lower than its 50 SMA, without a potential reversal in sight. As such, a move towards the next psychological level at 45 per dollar seems inevitable before the ongoing war ends.

Asset recap

As of market close on 13 April, among EBC major products, Oracle shares led gains as software shares, beaten down by AI disruption fears, clawed back some year-to-date losses.

Massachusetts Financial Services, a major institutional investor, lowered its holdings in Sempra Energy by 3.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to a recent SEC filing.

With valuations reading extremely cheap by some measures, and renewed hankering for growth, tech stocks would appear to be on the cusp of being fashionable once more.

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