🌍 MACRO PICTURE The US-Iran standoff remains the dominant market driver. The ceasefire expires today - and Trump has warned of escalation if no deal is reached. Iran's parliament speaker said talks won't happen "under the shadow of threats." A US delegation is in Pakistan for negotiations, but Iran has yet to confirm participation. Markets are resilient but edgy, with Asian equities trading mixed while the Strait of Hormuz stays largely blocked.
🌏 ASIAN SESSION A split picture across Asia this morning:
- 🇰🇷 KOSPI hit a fresh all-time intraday high of 6,355, up over 2% - fully recovering its pre-war losses, led by Samsung (+1.9%) and SK Hynix (+3.9%), on AI optimism and hopes of Middle East de-escalation
- 🇯🇵 Nikkei 225: +1.21%
- 🇨🇳 CSI 300: -0.35%
- 🇭🇰 Hang Seng: +0.12%
- 🇦🇺 ASX 200: -0.28%
- 🇮🇳 Nifty 50: +0.43%
- US futures are slightly positive: S&P 500 +0.12%, Nasdaq +0.23%
🛢️ OIL WTI: ~$87/bbl | Brent: ~$95/bbl Oil is elevated but off Monday's spike highs (WTI touched $88.8 on Monday). The Hormuz blockade continues to fuel supply fears. Watch today's ceasefire deadline closely - a breakthrough could send oil sharply lower.
💛 GOLD (XAU/USD) ~$4,800-4,830/oz - today's range: $4,737-4,890 Gold is recovering after Monday's dip. The metal is up ~40% year-on-year and ~9% over the past month. With rates on hold (Fed at 3.50-3.75%) and geopolitical uncertainty elevated, gold remains well-supported. Key range: $4,760-4,880.
💱 FOREX 🇪🇺 EUR/USD: ~1.1765 - holding recovery gains 🇬🇧 GBP/USD: ~1.3550 - bullish above 1.35 🇯🇵 USD/JPY: ~158.32 - Yen under pressure despite broad USD softness Dollar Index (DXY): ~97.85-98.03
₿ CRYPTO BTC: ~$75,300-75,800 - consolidating near recent levels. Institutional ETF demand and macro uncertainty are keeping a floor under prices. The AI-driven risk-on mood in Asia is providing mild support this morning.
📅 KEY DATA TODAY 🇳🇿 NZ Q1 CPI: 3.1% YoY (beat 2.9% forecast), +0.9% QoQ (beat 0.8%) - keeping RBNZ in a hawkish posture 🇬🇧 UK Employment data: due in the London session 🇺🇸 US Earnings: GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth Group, RTX Corp - key sector reads on industrials, healthcare and travel
⏰ THE BIG ONE TODAY The US-Iran ceasefire expires this evening. Any outcome - deal, extension, or breakdown - will move oil, gold and equities sharply. Stay alert.
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