EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.9595 last week but quickly retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.8479 minor support holds. Above 0.8595 will extend the rebound from 0.8276 to 38.2% retracement of 0.9324 to 0.8276 at 0.8676. However, firm break of 0.8479 will indicate completion of the rebound, and turn bias to the downside for retesting 0.8276 low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.9324 medium term top is till in progress. As long as 0.8786 support turned resistance holds, further fall is expected to 61.8% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9324 at 0.7848. Nevertheless, break of 0.8786 will argue that fall from 0.9324 has completed and turn focus back to this high.

In the long term picture, fall from 0.9324 is currently seen as the third leg of the whole pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). It’s a bit early to judge how fall the decline would extend to and whether 0.6935 would be taken out. We’ll pay attention to the structure of the fall from 0.9324 and corresponding downside momentum to made an assessment later.