USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.94; (P) 106.03; (R1) 106.12;

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral again with 4-hour MACD crossed below the signal line. Further rise is in favor as long as 104.94 support holds. Current development argues that downtrend from 111.71 has completed on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Above 106.11 will target 106.94 resistance for confirmation. However, on the downside, break of 104.94 will dampen this bullish view and bring retest of this low instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The downtrend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the downtrend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.