Australian Dollar rally continues, Trump tariffs loom

The Australian dollar has posted strong gains for a second straight day. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6306, up 0.47% on the day.

RBA holds rates but hints at further cuts if trade tensions worsen

The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on Tuesday, in a move that was widely expected by markets. Still, the Australian dollar reacted positively, gaining 0.48% on Tuesday.

The RBA statement noted that underlying inflation continued to ease in line with the Bank's forecast, but the Board "needs to be confident that this progress will continue" so that inflation remains sustainable at the midpoint of the 2%-3% target band.

The statement said there was "significant" uncertainty over global trade developments, pointing to the threat of further US tariffs and possible counter-tariffs from targeted countries.

The central bank's decision was made in the midst of a hotly contested election campaign, and a rate cut would likely have been attacked by the opposition parties as political interference.

In a press conference after the meeting, Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged the uncertainty over the global outlook due to US trade policy but sought to assure the markets by saying that Australia was "well placed" to weather the potential storm of a global trade war.

Markets bracing for Trump tariffs

US President Trump has not specifically targeted Australia with any tariffs but China is Australia's number one trading partner and a US-China trade war would inflict damage on Australia's economy.

The new US tariffs are expected to be announced later today and take effect on Thursday. The financial markets remain volatile as investors look for some clarity from Washington about the tariffs, as it remains unclear which countries will be targeted and the extent of the tariff rates.

AUD/USD technical

• AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6297. Above, there is resistance at 0.6315.

• 0.6264 and 0.6246 are the next support levels.