Brent rises above $68 on trade hopes, sanctions – Commerzbank

The price of Brent oil rose to more than $68 per barrel this week, reaching its highest level since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by US President Trump at the beginning of April, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Markets eye potential June supply boost from OPEC+

"The price has recovered around $10 from the 4-year low recorded shortly afterwards. Hopes of a possible rapprochement in the tariff conflict between the US and China and new US sanctions against the Iranian oil sector and buyers of Iranian oil have recently provided a tailwind. The significant increase in oil supply by OPEC+ in May appears to have been digested, at least for the time being."

"This is because the simultaneous production cuts to compensate for previous overproduction may result in oil production in the eight OPEC+ countries rising less sharply than is stated on paper. According to a report by Reuters, which is based on informed sources, these eight OPEC+ countries are considering a further significant increase in production for June. A decision on this is to be made at a meeting on 5 May."

"Should this materialise, a negative price reaction could be expected. Oil prices could already be affected by this prospect in the coming week. The surveys on OPEC production in April due at the end of next week are likely to show a small rise in production, as the first slight production increase came into force this month. However, this is only likely to have an impact on the market if production volumes have increased more than agreed."