USD/CHF holds near multi-week lows amid mixed US data

• The pair trades near 0.8360, struggling to find a clear direction.
• US retail sales rise 0.1% in April, slightly beating expectations.
• Swiss economy expands by 0.7% in Q1, supported by robust services growth.

USD/CHF remains pressured near the 0.8360 level on Thursday, extending its consolidation within this week’s range. The pair is struggling to gain traction amid mixed US economic data and a resilient Swiss economy.

In the United States, retail sales for April rose by 0.1% to $724.1 billion, slightly above market expectations for no change, while the prior month’s data was revised higher to 1.5% from 1.4%. However, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose by just 2.4% year-over-year, falling below the 2.5% forecast and down from 2.7% in March. This marks a significant slowdown in factory gate inflation, raising concerns about weakening price pressures. The softer inflation figures have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to ease policy further, pushing down the US Dollar Index (DXY) below the 101.00 mark.

Meanwhile, Switzerland’s economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter, accelerating from a revised 0.5% expansion in Q4 2024. This marked the strongest quarterly growth since early 2023, driven primarily by the services sector. However, inflationary pressures remain subdued, with the nation’s producer and import prices falling by 0.5% year-over-year in April, deeper than the 0.1% decline in March, reflecting persistent deflationary trends.

Technical Analysis

USD/CHF trades near the 0.8360 mark, struggling to gain bullish momentum despite a modest recovery in US retail sales. The pair remains below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.8385, a critical barrier for bulls. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 45, reflecting mild bearish conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, supporting a near-term bearish outlook.

Immediate support levels are seen at 0.8350, followed by the psychological 0.8300 mark, while resistance lies at 0.8385 and 0.8400. A sustained break below 0.8350 could expose the pair to further downside towards the year-to-date low near 0.8280. On the upside, a close above 0.8400 is needed to shift the short-term bias back to neutral.

Daily Chart