GBP/USD holds mid-range as Dollar tests resistance levels: Breakout or breakdown?

• GBP/USD remains range-bound near 1.35, lacking conviction ahead of key U.S. data.
• DXY holds firm below 99.668 resistance, with upside or rejection likely to set the tone.
• Pound’s 4H FVG support is weakening, and a breakout above 1.356 is needed for fresh highs.

Pound in a tight range, awaiting catalyst

The British pound remains caught in a tight range on the daily timeframe against the U.S. dollar, with GBP/USD trading just above the 1.35 level as the market awaits further confirmation from U.S. economic data, particularly, the non-farm payroll this Friday.

Greenback holding its ground between the 99-99.6 level

Despite recent bullish structure, the pair is showing signs of hesitation as the Dollar approaches a major resistance level at 99.668. The U.S. dollar has recovered sharply from its May lows, bouncing off the 98.700 level and invalidating a 4-hour Fair Value Gap between 99.112–98.871. Currently, USD is testing a level of potential reaction just below 99.668, with a strong impulsive move suggesting demand still favors the greenback.

If this level breaks, GBP/USD could face added pressure. However, if dollar fails to sustain above it, we may see the pound regain upside traction.

Consolidation within bullish structure

On the 4-hour timeframe, GBP/USD has formed a consolidation just above the 1.35 level. Price has pulled back slightly after tagging the upper edge of the FVG near 1.3530, and pound seems to be waiting for a catalyst to drive the next move. The 4-hour bullish FVG still valid but showing signs of deterioration as price is still consolidating at the level. A good FVG should exhibit a strong reaction for upside after it has been tagged which is not currently materializing at the moment.

Key levels and what to watch

• GBP/USD must stay above 1.3480-1.35 to keep bullish continuation intact
• A confirmed break above 1.3540–1.356 could open the door for a move toward 1.36 and beyond.
• Watch Dollar’s reaction to **99.668-**a break or rejection here will likely dictate whether GBP/USD rallies or rolls over.

With U.S. ADP and ISM data still ahead, the next move in the dollar will be critical.