XAU/USD outlook: Gold bounces from key support zone, looks for fresh direction signals

XAU/USD

Gold price edged higher from new over one-week low in early European trading, after it cracked strong supports at $3300 zone (psychological/daily Kijun-sen / daily cloud top), but faced headwinds here.

Bouncing after heavy losses (gold price was down around $100 in past two sessions) is a logical reaction, but the length of the recovery is under big question mark, due to mixed signals from both technical and geopolitical factors.

Daily studies show continuous weakening of positive momentum, but daily cloud (top at $3280 and reinforced by daily Kijun-sen) is expected to continue underpinning the action as long as the price holds above this zone.

On the other hand, situation on macroeconomic and geopolitical front is mixed, as today’s US – China trade talks boost optimism that the major trade war could be avoided and negative consequences significantly reduced, but further escalation in war in Ukraine and persistently heated situation in Gaza, threaten to offset positive impact.

Fresh recovery tested initial barrier at $3324 (daily Tenkan-sen), with sustained break here seen as minimum requirement to keep positive bias for further gains and test of upper pivot at $3348 (50% retracement of $3403/$3293 bear-leg).

Otherwise, the downside would remain very vulnerable, with violation of $3300/$3280 zone would further weaken near-term structure and risk drop towards $3245 (May 29 higher low) and $3200 (psychological).

Res: 3335; 3348; 3361; 3377.
Sup: 3295; 3280; 3245; 3200.

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