Crude Oil prices have surged over 40% in just two months, propelled by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a weakening U.S dollar and rekindled inflationary pressures. The explosive rally has revived expectations of $100 Oil, with Traders, Economists and Global Policymakers recalibrating forecasts for the second half of 2025.
Brent and WTI benchmarks both spiked sharply after Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian territory, escalating regional tensions to levels not seen in over a decade. In his first public statement following the attack U.S President Donald Trump declared: “Two months ago I gave Iran a 60-day ultimatum to make a deal. They should have done it. Today is day 61.”
Markets interpreted the remarks as a signal that diplomatic negotiations are stalling – raising the prospect of further conflict and price spikes.
Attention has turned to the Strait of Hormuz – the strategic chokepoint through which nearly 25% of global Oil and 20% of LNG shipments pass. Any sustained disruption could tip the market from mild surplus to a severe deficit.
JPMorgan estimates that up to 1. 7 million barrels per day could be taken offline if hostilities persist, potentially pushing Oil to $130 a barrel — a level not seen since the 2008 Commodities boom.
A renewed Oil shock could have profound macroeconomic consequences. “If crude breaches and holds above the $100 mark, we could see U.S inflation reaccelerate towards 5%,” according to Phil Carr, Head of Trading at GSC Commodity Intelligence.
Higher energy costs would ripple across supply chains, forcing central banks to shelve rate-cut expectations. The Federal Reserve, which had signalled a policy pause, may be forced into prolonged inaction – reviving fears of Stagflation just as markets were beginning to price in Disinflation.
While Oil dominates headlines, the rally has extended across the Commodity complex. On Friday, Gold surged past $3,450 an ounce, now within 2% of its all-time record high. Year-to-date, the world's favorite precious metal has climbed over 30% – driven by inflation hedging, central bank buying and growing distrust in fiat money.
Silver has gained more than 50% this year, recently touching a 13-year high, while Platinum is up over 40% in just eight weeks – its fastest rally since 2008.
Compounding the momentum is the U.S. dollar’s retreat to three-year lows, which has enhanced the attractiveness of dollar-denominated Commodities. In a note to clients, analysts at GSC Commodity Intelligence wrote: “The macro backdrop – marked by geopolitical risk, monetary uncertainty and resurging inflationary pressures – sets the stage for a powerful new phase in the Commodity Supercycle”.
From Energy to Metals – the Commodities markets appear to be undergoing a historic repricing. Oil is charging towards $100. Gold is nearing its all-time record highs. Silver and Platinum are breaking out. And global inflation is facing a potential resurgence.
For traders the message is clear: the time to position in Commodities is now – before $100 Oil becomes the new normal and before Gold, Silver, and Platinum enter their next explosive phase.
Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:
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