The single European currency remains stuck near 1.15 level in a narrow trading range for the third consecutive day as heightened geopolitical risk and previous headwinds that had affected the exchange rate in recent months make speculators extremely cautious about taking big bets.
With a very small extension just above the 1,16 level of the last 2 weeks, the pair remains in a known fluctuation range between the 1.10 and 1.16 levels of the last two months, largely confirming my thoughts as they had been reflected in previous articles as I had given a strong probability to such a scenario.
The geopolitical landscape remains very high on the investors' agenda, with developments in the Persian Gulf having overtaken the Ukrainian front for the time being, as a possible direct involvement of the United States is very likely in the next two weeks, something that could potentially give a new dangerous dimension to the geopolitical environment in the Middle East and beyond.
No significant surprises in the macroeconomic environment, with the Fed's decision on Wednesday night being completely expected, while the doubts remain regarding Fed's future moves, with two more interest rate cuts of 25 basis points by the end of the year remaining one of the main scenarios for now.
Even with the two future cuts on the table, the US dollar will continue to offer higher interest rates, something that has not yet managed to act as a deterrent to the pressures that the US currency has faced in recent months, as the controversial personality of President Donald Trump and the enigmatic policy he follows, mainly on the issue of trade tariffs, has brought the US debt into an environment of unrest, putting pressure on the US currency.
Today's agenda is quite poor without anything important on both sides of the Atlantic, consequently combined with the closing of the week, the range of variation is expected to remain limited on either side of the 1.15 level with the big bets currently staying out of the game.
I remain on hold, expecting possible levels near 1.17 to 1.18 for the possibility of buying the US dollar as I estimate that there will be conditions for market consolidation and the pair it will not be easy to climb to 1.20 without first digesting some levels.
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