AUD/USD eyes breakout as RBA holds rates steady

• AUDUSD recoups some losses.

• Immediate resistance from 61.8% Fibo.

• RSI and stochastics suggest upside recovery.

AUDUSD is gaining ground following the RBA’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.85%, defying market expectations. The pair is once again testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 0.6940–0.5913 decline, currently near 0.6550, after three consecutive sessions of losses.

A sustained move above this key level could pave the way for a retest of the eight-month high at 0.6590, with further upside potential toward the four-year descending trendline near 0.6690. A breakout above this resistance would signal a shift toward a more bullish long-term outlook.

Alternatively, a drop below the short-term ascending trend line may trigger renewed downside pressure, targeting the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 0.6425 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around 0.6410. Deeper support lies at 0.6370 and 0.6340.

Momentum indicators offer mixed signals: the RSI has rebounded from the neutral 50 mark, while the stochastic oscillator is attempting to recover.

AUDUSD is at a critical juncture, with the 0.6550 level acting as a key pivot. A decisive move in either direction could define the pair’s medium-term trajectory.