NVDA hits historic $4 Trillion Mark as stocks, bonds

• NVDA is now a $4 trillion company!

• Stocks rallied, bonds rallied, oil rallied and gold rallied.

• FOMC mins reveals nothing. It’s the same divide.

• FED Fund Futures still not expecting a cut in July.

• Try the Pasta Crudaioloa.

Stocks rallied – hard - amid the latest tariffs announcements (which continue to create confusion), Trump confirmed that Brazil is getting hit with a 50% tariff on copper on August 1st. We had strong demand for the $39 billion 10 yr bond auction -which sent bond prices up and yields down, while the CNN FEAR & GREED INDEX (yes, that’s right, CNN is now getting into market sentiment analysis game) screams ‘GREED’…..This index – which is their take on the RSI index (Relative Strength Index) uses momentum to signal ‘fear or greed’ the same way the RSI uses momentum to signal overbot/oversold. (I guess CNN is trying to become a market data/sentiment player for retail investors that don’t have access to the RSI).

We have been discussing RSI for a couple of days now (CNN is late to the game) and I have pointed out that RSI has been warning of becoming ‘overbot’ so, what’s the surprise? Last night the RSI finished the day at 70.2277 – just piercing the 70 level that suggests caution ahead. - Recall that on Monday morning – the RSI was at 74.77 – well into overbot territory and on Monday – stocks backed off.

In any event – I didn’t hear anyone complaining as stocks push higher….the Dow up 217 pts or 0.5%, the S&P up 38 pts or 0.6%, the Nasdaq added 192 pts or 1%, the Russell added 24 pts or 1.1%, the Transports bucked the trend and lost 42 pts or 0.3%, the Equal Weight S&P added 23 pts or 0.3%, while the Mag 7 added 311 pts or 1.15%.

You can say ‘Thank you’ to NVDA – which rallied hard up 3.9% by 10 am – becoming a $4 trillion stock before settling in at +2.9% or $4.60/sh at $162.88. NVDA made history with that move, and it marks a stunning rebound considering the rough start to the year (think the DeepSeek drama). It is now the first $4 trillion company. This morning NVDA is trading up 80 cts at $163.60 and represents 7.5% of the S&P. Now, marinate on this for a moment – NVDA is now worth MORE than every publicly traded company in Germany. About 30% more…..How’s that for a tidbit?

Bonds rallied on the back of the successful bond auction – snapping a 5 day sell-off…. the TLT +1.1% while the TLH + 0.9%. The AGG added 0.4% - recall that the AGG index includes Gov’t, Treasuries and Corporate Bonds, while the TLT and TLH are only treasuries. Just fyi – the TLT is down 0.5% ytd, the TLH is up 0.75% ytd while the AGG is + 1.6% ytd.

The 10-yr yield fell 6 bps to end the day at 4.34%, the 30 yr fell 5 bps to end the day at 4.87%. Today we have the $22 billion dollar auction of 30 yr bonds – so let’s see what the appetite for longer term bonds will be. Any weakness in demand will push the 30 yr yield higher while strong demand will push the yield lower. At 5:30 the 30-yr yield is up 1 bps at 4.88%.

Oil, continues churn in the $68/$70 range. This morning it is down 24 cts at $68.14. Yesterday, we kissed $69 (it was $68.94) and then backed off. You know the story, demand is strong, and more supply is coming in August and September…So, I expect that we will see lower oil prices in the fall.

Gold - well that turned around….and ended the day up $25 at $3,321/oz….This morning it is up $14 at $3.335/oz…..and while I expected us to test lower, I did tell you yesterday that IF the tone changed from complacency to nervousness – then we would see gold rally. Guess what happened? The tone changed! OH, and the dollar fell a bit, after rallying for two weeks. This morning the dollar is down 14 cts at 97.417 – a weaker dollar will help commodities, both oil and gold.

Eco data yesterday saw Mortgage Apps surge…. +9.4% week over week. We also got the latest FOMC mins – and what did we get? Nothing new…. The usual divide – some thinking tariffs would not affect longer term inflation expectations, while others think they will. FED Funds’ futures still not pricing in a rate cut for July, but we still have 2 weeks to go.

Eco data today includes Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims. Look, I am still in the camp that JJ should do nothing – the economy is strong, there is no need to stimulate it with lower rates. Yes, lower rates will cut the amount of money we pay in interest, but it also has the potential to cause inflation to surge – so pick your poison.

This morning US futures are down – small, but down still the same….…. Dow futures -98, S&P’s -10, Nasdaq down 29 while Russell is down 4. Yesterday, our friends at Goldman raised their outlook for US stocks…citing the continued strength in US companies. (Oh boy, if that’s not a SELL signal, I don’t know what it is!). Let’s see where we go from here…..

European markets are mixed…..Spain down 0.6% while the UK is up 1.1%. The sense across Europe is that the tariff drama will not be as onerous as feared. European miners are surging on the back of those announced 50% tariffs – expect US miners to do the same.

The S&P closed at 6263 – up 38 pts. The VIX continues to churn near the lows (which suggests complacency) and is now below all 3 trendlines. This is exactly when you need to pay attention…..because complacency breeds more complacency. The RSI is now kissing overbot…..Futures are suggesting a bit lower, and the market does feel a bit tired to me. Talk to your advisor, stay on the course, do not chase stocks, be a buyer on pullbacks.

Pasta crudaiola

A simple pasta dish with cherry tomatoes, Arugula, and some Ricotta Salata.

For this you need a box of cherry tomatoes, garlic, arugula, olive oil, s&p, Ricotta Salata, fresh basil, and the pasta – Orecchiette.

Begin by bringing a pot of salt water to a rolling boil. Add to box of Orecchiette (little ears) and cook for 8 mins.

While that is happening. Slice the tomatoes in half and place them in a bowl. Add in some fresh basil, s&p, and olive oil. Mix and set aside.

When the pasta is done – mix the hot pasta with the tomato mixture and then toss in a handful of fresh arugulas. Mix well. When serving top with grated ricotta Salata. Delish.