GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Sterling set for weekly gains amid broad Yen weakness

• GBP/JPY trades modestly higher above 199.00 on Friday, up 0.35% intraday, amid broad-based Yen weakness.
• US President Trump’s 25% tariff threats on Japanese imports undermine the Yen’s safe-haven appeal.
• The cross is set for solid weekly gains, holding near year-to-date highs with strong bullish momentum.

The British Pound (GBP) trades modestly stronger against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Friday, as the Yen remains broadly pressured amid a fresh wave of trade-related uncertainty. Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump announced sweeping 25% tariffs on all Japanese imports, set to take effect from August 1. The announcement has unsettled global markets and diminished the Yen’s traditional safe-haven appeal. Against this backdrop, GBP/JPY looks poised to secure weekly gains, supported by sustained Yen weakness and firm bullish momentum.

At the time of writing, the pair is trading within a familiar range around 199.10, up 0.35% on the day, after briefly touching an intraday high of 199.45. The cross remains well supported above its 20-day Simple Moving Average, which also acts as the middle Bollinger Band, reinforcing its role as dynamic support. With prices holding near year-to-date highs, the broader technical structure continues to favor the bulls, as persistent buying interest keeps the uptrend intact.

From a trend-following perspective, GBP/JPY has established a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows, respecting the boundaries of a rising channel. As long as the pair holds above key support at 197.50 with the 20-day Simple Moving Average offering short-term dynamic support, the outlook remains constructive. A sustained break below this level could pave the way for a move toward the 195.50 near the low of July 4.

Immediate resistance is seen at 199.45 (the daily high), followed by the upper Bollinger Band at 199.97 and the key psychological barrier at 200.00.

Momentum indicators continue to broadly support the uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds around 60.70, staying comfortably above the neutral 50 mark, but still below overbought territory, suggesting there’s room for further gains before momentum runs too hot. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) continues to exhibit a positive bias. The MACD line remains above the signal line, although the histogram is beginning to flatten out, hinting at a possible slowdown in momentum if buyers fail to push through the next resistance zone.

In the near term, the technical picture favors further upside as long as the pair holds above the 197.50-198.00 support zone. However, traders may want to monitor price action closely near the 200.00 mark, where overbought signals and profit-taking could cap gains. Broader direction will likely remain tied to geopolitical developments, especially around US-Japan trade relations and any potential retaliation from Tokyo.