A canary in a coal mine

• Currencies and metals rally on Monday.
• Trade tensions weigh on the Dollar.

Good Day... And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals were thrown a life saver yesterday, as they played the Rockies, the worst record team in baseball... The team needs to sweep this team they're playing, and come back home... where they DO play better baseball... It was a decent day here yesterday, and we went to dinner with our good friends, Toni and Duane... I was supposed to receive my two new books yesterday, but they were delayed... UGH! The Rev. Al Green greets me this morning with his song: Love And Happiness.

The dollar continued what it started late last week, and that his to get sold... The BBDXY lost 3 index points yesterday. The currencies all breathed a sigh of relief, that the dollar's rally was brief... Gold was up and nearly traded above the $3,400 figure to end the day at $3,397, up $50 on the day... And Silver tried to get back to its 14-year high, but the short paper traders cut Silver's rally off at $38.99, up 88-cents on the day... I have something very interesting for you in the FWIW section today on Silver, so I doubt you'll want to miss that! 

Like I told you yesterday, the sentiment has changed on Wall Street, and risk assets are back on the buying table... In keeping that thought in mind, the price of Oil drifted yesterday, and ended the day at $66.61... I also read last night that the bond boys are coming back around to thinking that long term inflation is on the board again, and now they need to show it by getting the yield moving upward again. The 10-year Treasury ended yesterday with a 4.37% yield.

In the overnight markets last night... The dollar just kind of drifted about, with the BBDXY staying at 1,200, but the euro climbing back over the 1.17 figure... The rest of the currencies are looking good too, as we start our day.

The price of Gold is seeing some profit taking this morning and is down $9 to start the day, and Silver is playing follow the leader and is down 5-cents to start the day. After yesterday's major move upward, these two needed to take a breather, and that's just what they are doing. As long as the short paper traders don't show up and begin to take their pound of flesh again, Gold & Silver should weather the day, and most likely will turn the negatives to positives... I'm just saying.

The price of Oil remained in the $66 handle overnight... And the 10-year Treasury trades with a 4.39% yield this morning. Maybe the bond boys got my message? Ha! I doubt that seriously! 

Speaking of Oil, that brings me to the Petrol Currencies, that includes: rubles, sterling, krone, loonies, rand and pesos, to name a few... These Petrol Currencies are stuck in a rut with the price of oil range trading these days... A currency like the Norwegian krone is influenced by not only the price of Oil, but also the euro... So, when the price of Oil is stuck in a rut like it is now, the rise in the euro helps the krone to inch higher VS the dollar.

The underlying trend is for a weaker dollar... And it will get lower come hell or high water... In that I mean, the dollar has a laundry list of items stacked up against it right now, and should keep the dollar down, unless the PPT comes along and intervenes by buying dollars. We haven't seen much from the PPT in recent times and they have me wondering if we should put their picture on a milk carton? Not that I ever want to see them again, just pointing out that they're missing... And that's a good thing in my book! 

One of the things weighing on the dollar right now Is the clear as mud trade situation... Trade tensions are weighing heavily on the dollar, and lifting the price of Gold... We brought these trade tensions on ourselves, folks, so there's no one to blame except we the people... I'm just saying.

And I found this on Zerohedge.com "Another wave of closures and layoffs has hit workers and companies tied to commercial transportation, manufacturing, lumber production, distribution and logistics across the U.S.

Over the past several weeks, there have been 4,137 job cuts announced, according to media reports and Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act notices."

Chuck again... bet you didn't hear that news on the 5 o'clock news did you? Yet another item to add to the stack of problems for the dollar.

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the Leading Indicators for June, and I said they would be negative, and they were negative by -.3%... Another item for the dollar weakness check list.

Today's Data Cupboard only has the Existing Home Sales... not a market moving piece of data.

To recap... The dollar got sold on Monday, and throughout Monday night it drifted, and starts today trading in the same clothes as yesterday's close 1,200... Gold & Silver had good days yesterday but are seeing some small profit taking this morning. Chuck talks about the Petrol Currencies, and layoffs along with trade tensions, not a good pair for the dollar.

Here's your snippet: "THE MOOD

Everything in silver is getting so, so stretched.

It's hard to imagine this game going on much longer.

Harder still to imagine what happens when it ends.

This isn’t just about silver.

It’s about fragility, exposure, and cracks in a system designed to hold -- until it can’t.

The signal cluster

In the past few weeks, a rare alignment hit the silver market:

Record short positions by swap dealers -- offsetting natural demand

SLV borrow rates spike -- shorts scrambling

Silver lease rates spike -- users paying up for physical

COMEX warehouse stock explodes by +200M oz -- futures buyers taking delivery

This is not normal. It’s pressure.

Coordinated or not, it’s happening.

And it all points in one direction: stress.

The heist blueprint

If you read Silver Heist, none of this should surprise you.

We laid out the script -- paper vs. physical, naked shorts, the shell game.

The paper market runs on illusion.

The physical market demands settlement.

That moment -- when illusion meets delivery -- is when systems must adapt.

Zoom out

The takeaway isn’t just about silver.

It’s a case study in how systems mask fragility -- until delivery day arrives.

First comes the mispricing.

Then the manipulation.

Finally, the reveal – the truth reclaims the narrative.

The pressure valve won’t hold forever – and change will follow."

Chuck again... This article is full of charts to illustrate his points, of which I think he does a very good job of... Check it out!

Market Prices 7/22/2025: American Style: A$ .6517, kiwi .5963, C$ .7306, euro 1.1703, sterling 1.3479, Swiss $1.2547, European Style: rand 17.6093, krone 10.1660, SEK 9.5852, forint 342.22, zloty 3.6375, koruna 21.0428, RUB 78.51, yen 147.41, sing 1.2815, HKD 7.8499, INR 86.37, China 7.1756, peso 18.61, BRL 5.5673, BBDXY 1,200, Dollar Index 98.23, Oil $66.69, 10-year 4.39%, Silver $38.92, Platinum $1,450.00, Palladium $1,274.00, Copper $5.66, and Gold... $3,388.

That's it for today... I received my RSV vaccine yesterday... My PCP requested that I get one since I've caught so many colds that turned into disaster... Well, I sure hope it works, not that I think I'm now immune to germs... I still need to watch where I go, who I see, and what I do... And I'll be around little Evie for two weeks while on vacation, and she's normally kryptonite for me... But she's so cute! And when she wants to give me hug, I can't resist! See? I'm an old softie! The St. Louis band, Mama's Pride takes us to the finish line today with their hit song: Blue Mist... I hope you have a Tom terrific Tuesday today, and once again, please Be Good To Yourself!