US oppen playbook update: Bears break 23,319, now testing 23,142 pivot

Lower highs/lows in London foreshadowed the pullback; rejection at Micro 2 (23,228) and VAL confirms that deeper sellers are in control.

1. Session Recap

• Warning Signs: During the London session, price formed lower highs and lower lows—a clear "front‑row" signal that bulls were losing their grip.
• Key Failure: Instead of reclaiming Micro 5 at 23,319.75, NQ decisively broke below it, triggering an accelerated sell‑off.

2. Technical Update

• Micro 4 & Micro 2 Breached: After losing 23,319, sellers drove price through Micro 4 (23,281) and Micro 2 (23,228).
• Major Pivot Hit: The decline found momentary support at the 23,142 pivot—but this bounce is already fading.
• Rejection Zones:
  • Attempted recovery into Micro 2 at 23,228 was sharply rejected.
  • Price also failed to hold above the current VAL line, reinforcing bearish conviction.

Nasdaq 100 Futures price chart courtesy of TradingView | Playbook by MacroStructure dot connect

3. What's Next?

• Bearish Edge: As long as price remains below 23,228 and VAL, look for further downside toward the next anchor levels:
  • 23,108 (Low of the day)
  • 23,000–23,020 (psychological support zone)
• Short Entries:
  • On rallies into 23,228–23,250, consider shorting with tight stops above 23,268. Watch for rejection before pulling the trigger.
• Aggressive Bullish Reversal:
  • Only a clean reclaim and hold above 23,319.75 invalidates the bearish bias.

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