Golden age or golden chains? Tariffs, Gold, and the future of markets

Review

President Donald Trump said he will impose a 100% tariff on imports of semiconductors and chips, but not for companies that are “building in the United States.”

— Kevin Breuninger, “Trump Vows 100% Tariff On Chips, Unless Companies Are Building In The U.S.,” CNBC, August 6, 2025.

The Financial Times reports that the U.S. has declared imports of one kilogram and 100-ounce bars of gold are subject to trade taxes. If true, U.S. citizens who tried to hedge the inflation impact of U.S. President Trump’s trade taxes by buying gold bars must pay those same taxes on their hedge. The ruling suggests gold imported between April 9 and August 7 was subject to the tariff, underscoring how tariffs work. Gold importers are liable, and they (not exporters) will be pursued in the courts if they do not pay the tax. Switzerland is the main supplier of these gold bars. 

— Dr. Paul Donovan, “All That’s Gold Does Not Glitter,” UBS Morning Audio Comment, August 8, 2025.

US stocks capped off an impressive week with the Nasdaq and various segments of the tech sector seeing strong bids. The rally from the April 7 intermediate-term cycle bottom just turned 4 months old, so we may not be far from reaching a point of euphoria here.

European markets were mixed last week, with Germany showing the most strength out of the major exchanges. The FTSE over in the UK was slightly lower, while the AEX managed to finish up on the week. We continue to see notable strength from markets like Poland, Greece, and Austria, which have been some of the world’s best-performing markets this year.

Aside from the US, the best-performing markets of the week came from Asia, as we saw the Nikkei, the Shanghai Composite, the Hang Seng Index, and the Australian All Ordinaries Index all notch impressive gains.

Precious metals also saw smart rallies. Gold hit a new all-time high after tariffs were announced on imports from Switzerland. Silver still has not made a new high, however.

Cryptocurrencies also saw bids, with Ethereum leading the way higher once again. Although Ethereum has yet to make a new all-time high like Bitcoin has, it’s been one of the strongest-performing assets since April 7. It seems that there is little stopping its bullish momentum at the moment, given that it traded back above $4,000 just this Friday.

Commodity markets continued to display weakness. Crude Oil closed at a new cycle low, and grains continued to edge lower. Despite inflation not presenting itself in commodity markets, Treasuries struggled and finished lower on the week as well. The Dollar ended the week mixed down against the Euro, but up against the Yen. Don’t be surprised if the USD/JPY carry trade starts accelerating again, either.

Short-term geocosmics

We’re in the final days of the Mercury retrograde period now, and per usual, there have been no shortages of mixed messages surrounding the state of global affairs and the economy. Here we have stock markets within a few percentage points of all-time highs, yet concerns about the economy slipping into a recession continue to grow.

The tension in the near term is amplified by the series of hard aspects between Mars, Saturn, and Neptune. Mars recently ingressed into Libra and is moving into an opposition with those two outer planets, which are in orb of a conjunction in the sign of Aries. More on this below, especially on the Saturn side of things.

Mars is in the sign of Libra, and we have an attempt at a peace deal being made. Trump and Putin are supposed to meet soon, but whether it actually happens and whether it actually bears fruit is another story entirely. For the sake of world peace, hopefully their meeting takes place after Mercury goes direct.

Speaking of Mercury retrograde, we had a series of trade deals between the US and the European Union, and the US and Japan struck under Mercury retrograde. Time will tell as to whether these stick, but it’s safe to say there may be some modifications coming down the line in those agreements.

Mars in Libra, opposing Saturn conjunct Neptune in Aries, is very fitting for peace talks on the Ukraine matter. We’ve heard so many different stories about the progress of the war, and who was “winning” at various points in time. But who really does in these situations? Economic growth based on conquest has always existed, but always at a cost. We know that nothing is free in this universe – someone, somewhere, has to pay.

Despite the tensions to start the weekend, we actually see some positive aspects coming to start next week. There’s a Venus-Jupiter conjunction in the sign of Cancer, and it’s an aspect I like to view as conducive to “civilization building.” Hopefully, we get some civility out of this meeting.

Plus, there’s a sextile between Saturn and Uranus, and even a trine between Mars and Pluto. The leaders will just have to face reality (Saturn) and overcome what’s real and what isn’t (Neptune) if they want to make progress and move toward ending this conflict that’s been ongoing for over three years. This could turn out to be good news for the stock market’s rally, which just turned 4 months old last week, but don’t be surprised if it turns into a case of “buy the rumor, sell the news” either.

Longer-term thoughts (and opinion)

The Kremlin said Thursday that a meeting between presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin has been agreed to in principle and will happen in the “coming days,” teeing up their first in-person encounter of Trump’s second term.

— Alexander Smith, “Kremlin Says Putin-Trump Meeting Agreed, Will Happen in ‘Coming Days’,” NBC News, August 7, 2025.

Last week, Noam Scheiber in The New York Times reported economists just out of school are suddenly having trouble finding jobs. As recently as the 2023-24 academic year, said a member of the American Economic Association, the employment rate for economists shortly after earning a doctorate was 100%. Not now. Everyone’s scaling back, government is laying off, and big firms have slowed hiring. Why? Uncertainty, tariffs and the possibility that artificial intelligence will replace their workers.

— Peggy Noonan, “AI Is Here, and a Quiet Havoc Has Begun,” The Wall Street Journal, August 8, 2025.

When it comes to outer planetary astrology, it’s pretty quiet until the exact conjunction between Saturn and Neptune on February 20, 2026. This conjunction will take place in the sign of Aries, and I spent some time discussing the ramifications of this transit in the last free weekly column that Ray asked me to write back in May.

So, instead of rehashing the same ideas a few months later, I would like to use this week’s column to talk more about Saturn to add further context to the conjunction with Neptune, which is in orb right now.

Saturn is a very important planet both to Ray and me. Ray is a double Capricorn (Sun and Moon), while I am a Capricorn rising, which makes Saturn my ruling planet. I am currently here in central Italy, in a territory with particularly close ties to Saturn itself. I spent all of my summers as a youth in this area, and in the ancient world, it was known as the Latin Valley.

According to legend, Saturn, after being dethroned by his son Jupiter in Greece, fled to Latium (modern-day Lazio) as an immigrant god. He was welcomed by Janus, the god of beginnings and ends. Saturn settled in the region and became its first king, ushering in a Golden Age of peace and prosperity. During his reign, Saturn taught the people in this area agriculture, viticulture, and civilized living, transforming their “barbaric” ways into a moral and prosperous society. He was seen as the ancestor of the Latin people through his son Picus, the first king of Latium, who married Janus’s daughter Canens and fathered Faunus.

This era was marked by harmony (think about how Saturn is exalted in the sign of Libra), with Saturn uniting wild races like nymphs and fauns, giving them laws, and fostering abundance. His rule was celebrated as a time when labor was unnecessary, and the land yielded bountiful harvests.

Now, I will say, this land is still pretty abundant with agriculture, and looking around at the terrain surrounded by mountains, one can’t help but see the connections to Saturn. And I’ll say this too – time seems to move at a different pace here. It’s almost as if the land itself is forcing you to embrace patience, which is downstream from discipline, both Saturnian virtues.

So, as we think about the potential ramifications of this Saturn-Neptune conjunction in Aries, as well as how it’s aspected via sextile to both Uranus and Pluto, which are already in trine to one another, I remain optimistic over the outcome of this conjunction.

But that doesn’t mean it’s going to be a smooth transition. In fact, I’m not exactly expecting it to be comfortable for many, but typical to Saturn’s rulership of time, and the notion that “time heals all wounds,” I do think the world will be better for it afterwards. We may even have to reevaluate what we thought of the past in order to come to terms with the present, and this will likely be reflected both at a mundane level and in financial markets.

We know that Saturn is a planet that tends more towards deflation versus inflation, and so don’t be surprised if the next ideological battle on the inflation front has to do with the blame game. Jupiter will be on the Federal Reserve Board’s ascendant at the September meeting, and the market is currently pricing in a +90% chance of a rate cut then.

It still seems as though the goldilocks economic scenario can continue – but don’t be surprised if people get caught up in blaming rate cuts or tariffs for the next round of inflation. In the meantime, there are cracks starting to surface in the job market that further reinforce the idea that rate cuts are coming. It all makes for a fine ideological discussion, but at the end of the day, as traders, we like to ask, “Do you want to be right, or do you want to make money?” The time to prepare is now, because once Saturn and Neptune start separating in February 2026, the inflation landscape could quickly start to unravel, and if it’s accompanied by rising unemployment too, things could start getting uncomfortable.