Minimum wage increases outpaced inflation in CEE

On the radar

• Hungarian 2Q25 GDP growth was confirmed at 0.1% y/y.
• Flash inflation in Croatia remained at 4.1% y/y in August.
• Today, Czechia will publish wage growth in 2Q25.
• At 11 AM CET Croatia will release industrial output growth in July.
• Poland’s central bank will announce interest rate decision.

Economic developments

Today we look at the minimum wage across the region. Recently released data show that in nominal terms (EUR) minimum wage was the highest in Slovenia (1278 in 2025) followed by Poland. Only in these two countries from the region, the minimum wage is above 1000 EUR this year. The lowest minimum wage is in Serbia (618 EUR). When we look at the cumulative change in minimum wage since 2021 (so prior to inflation shock), minimum wage went up in all CEE countries and at least by as much as inflation over the same period. In Slovenia and Slovakia minimum wage increases matched inflation change between 2021 and 2025 (around 20% and 30% respectively). In Croatia, Poland, Romania and Serbia minimum wage increased between 70% and 80% since 2021 while cumulative change of headline inflation was half of that (between 30% and 35%). It must be noted that in countries with floating exchange rate the currency development may additionally affect the minimum wage in EUR.

Market movements

Poland’s central bank will announce the interest rate decision today and we expect interest rate cut as inflation eased toward 2.8% y/y in August and nominal wage growth lost some steam. Governor of Czech central bank Michl sees the decision to bring key policy rate to 3.5% as justified. It seems this is terminal rate for Czechia’s central bank and we do not expect further easing. Governor Michl also shared the view, that, in general, he thinks that having interest rates close to zero would be a mistake. In Romania political tension has risen again due to spending cuts and some of the austerity measures (cut of administrative expenses). On the FX market, EURHUF moved a bit down since the beginning of the week, while the bond market had been quite stable this week.

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