Morning briefing: Euro is coming off within its 1.1800-1.1600 range

The Dollar Index has bounced well from the low of 97.25. Still a break past 98 will be needed to open the doors for 99-100 in the near term. The Euro is coming off within its 1.18-1.16 range. EURINR has slipped below 103.50 and is back within its 103.50-10.250 range. EURJPY and USDJPY can trade within the 174-172 region 146-148/49 region, while below 174 and 149. USDCNY has bounced from, 71,2 and a break past 7.13 can take it towards 7.15-7.16 in the near term. The Aussie needs to hold above 0.66 to test 0.67, else it is likely to fall back towards 0.655-0.6400. The Pound tested 1.3590 as anticipated and can trade within 1.36/37-1.34 region in the near term. USDINR above 88 can rise towards 88.35-88.50 in the coming sessions. US PPI Data release is scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have risen back. If this sustains, they can rise more in the coming days which in turn will ease the danger of seeing a deeper fall. The US CPI data release tomorrow will be important to watch. The German yields have inched up. But there is room to fall back and test their support before the broader uptrend resumes. The ECB meeting outcome tomorrow has to be watched. The 10Yr GoI has risen back well ahead of its support. Further rise is possible if this sustains. Broadly, the 10Yr GoI can oscillate in a range for some time.

The Dow Jones moved up yesterday after downward revision of US labor data that showed a weaker labor market for the 12-months up to Mar-25. Dow can test 46000 before seeing a dip to 45000. Dax can dip to 23500 or lower while below 23800/850. Nifty has moved up well to close above 24850 yesterday. If the rise continues, we may expect a test of 25000 soon. Nikkei has dipped below 44000 but needs to rise back soon to prevent a fall towards 430000 and instead head towards 44000-44500. Shanghai can head towards 3900-4000 soon.

Brent remains weak and could slip towards $64–$62 while below $67, with WTI also vulnerable to a fall towards $60–$58 if it stays under $64. Gold continues to show strong momentum after making a fresh record high and has room to rise further towards $3750–$3800, while Silver is stuck in a tight $42–$41 range and needs a breakout for clearer direction. Copper may test support near $4.4 before bouncing towards $4.7–$4.8, though a direct rise cannot be ruled out. Natural gas looks poised to head higher towards $3.20–$3.25 in the near term.

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