Gold pulls back ahead of CPI as rate-cut bets and global tensions drive focus

Gold (XAU/USD) prices have pulled back after a strong rally fueled by weak U.S. jobs data and growing bets on a September Fed rate cut. Markets are increasingly expecting a Fed rate cut in September, which continues to support bullish momentum. At the same time, geopolitical tensions and continued central bank buying are supporting gold’s safe-haven appeal. However, global demand concerns and a firmer U.S. Dollar have introduced short-term pressure. With key inflation data approaching, investors are watching closely for the next move.

Gold slips before CPI as Fed bets intensify and geopolitical risks mount

Gold prices have retreated following a period of strong upward momentum. The rally was driven by sharply weaker U.S. labour market data. Specifically, August’s jobs report showed just 22,000 new payrolls, missing expectations of 75,000, with the jobless rate rising to 4.3%. Markets viewed this as a strong sign of economic weakness. In response, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September rose sharply, with the CME FedWatch Tool now showing high odds of a 25 basis point move.

At the same time, geopolitical tensions have added fuel to gold’s safe-haven appeal. Over the weekend, Russia conducted its biggest airstrike since the war began, hitting civilian areas and key infrastructure across Ukraine. In addition, the People’s Bank of China increased its gold reserves for a tenth straight month in August, reinforcing bullish sentiment. This consistent central bank buying continues to support gold’s underlying strength.

Despite the bullish backdrop, several risks continue to weigh on gold’s upward potential. The U.S. Dollar rebounded sharply after political instability in Japan triggered JPY weakness and renewed demand for USD instead of gold. Meanwhile, weak Chinese import data has raised concerns about global demand. As the top gold consumer, China’s economic slowdown is intensifying uncertainty in the precious metals market. With key inflation data now in focus, some investors are pulling back from the market. A surprise reading, in turn, may alter Fed policy bets and pressure gold prices.

Gold maintains uptrend with consistent triangle breakouts

The gold chart below shows multiple triangle patterns that have formed on the weekly timeframe. Each pattern was followed by a strong breakout, with one developing in 2024 and the other in 2025. Typically, ascending triangles indicate bullish consolidation, with price forming higher lows beneath a steady resistance level. This formation signals increasing bullish momentum, with buyers steadily gaining control over the market.

Accordingly, the most recent breakout has been validated by a strong close above resistance and continued upside pressure. Specifically, the breakout occurred around the $3,440–$3,460 zone, which now serves as a new support level. Previously, a similar pattern unfolded between April and August 2024, leading to a sharp $800 rally. Overall, this recurring structure shows reliable technical behaviour throughout the broader uptrend.

Furthermore, the red arrows on the chart highlight the strong price surges that followed each breakout. These setups have consistently resulted in sharp upward extensions. Gold is currently holding firm with strong upward momentum. If this breakout holds, the next potential target lies between $3,900 and $4,000. The ongoing pattern of higher lows and successful breakouts reinforces the long-term bullish trend.

Gold outlook: CPI, Dollar, and global tensions to shape Gold’s path

Gold holds its upward trend as markets eye upcoming inflation data that could influence Fed policy. The breakout above key resistance confirms additional upside potential. Meanwhile, central bank buying and global tensions reinforce gold’s long-term strength. A stronger-than-expected inflation print or firmer Dollar could pressure gold in the near term. Despite short-term volatility, the overall setup remains bullish from both a technical and fundamental perspective.

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