UK economy at a ‘standstill’ as trade weakens

According to ONS data out this morning, monthly GDP is estimated to have shown no growth in July 2025, following growth of 0.4% in June 2025 and a fall of 0.1% in May 2025.

Meanwhile, exports of goods to the United States, including precious metals, rose by £0.8 billion in July 2025 but remain below their pre-tariff levels.

The total goods and services trade deficit widened by £0.4 billion to £10.3 billion in the three months to July 2025, because total imports rose by more than exports.

 Samuel Edwards, Head of Dealing at financial services firm Ebury, said: “Today’s data points to an economy at a standstill in what will be another blow to the Government in the run up to the now confirmed Autumn budget.

 “Meanwhile, US tariffs and a more restrictive tax regime are pushing up costs for exporters and importers, forcing businesses to choose between absorbing the added cost or passing it onto consumers.

 “Even with the IMF nudging up the UK’s growth forecast for 2025, the string of poor economic data alongside the very real threat of the Chancellor upping taxes again will likely pour cold water on any growth revival in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, the Bank of England recently dampened hopes of further rate cuts despite the current 4% rate remaining far higher than pre-pandemic levels - throwing yet another roadblock in the path of economic growth and business confidence.

 “With businesses facing rising costs and uncertainty, we would urge them to explore all options, including reviewing FX policies and securing flexible finance to build resilience to any headwinds.”