Adjusting for seasonality and prices, spending excluding energy rose by 0.8% in August compared to July, driven by improvements across both retail and services. Real spending is still only marginally higher than at the turn of the year, but overall, the past two months have seen an upward trajectory.
In August, service spending edged higher across the board. Restaurant spending is up both in real and nominal terms, and holiday related spending, which has been somewhat volatile in recent months rose – especially for hotels, but we also saw some improvements in airlines and packaged holidays, when adjusting for seasonal patterns and prices.
In retail, the moderate real growth we have seen this year continues. Once again, nominal spending in grocery stores rose slowly, while real spending continues to be depressed by rising food prices – compared to last year nominal grocery spending is only up 3%, while prices have risen almost 6% in the same period, suggesting that households continue to adjust their shopping habits. On the contrary, clothing spending has seen consistent improvements.
Overall, real spending growth has been muted in 2025 despite recent months improvements, as consumers continue their cautious approach to consumption. We expect consumption to pick up somewhat going forward and into 2026, supported by real income growth and getting an additional boost from the sharp reduction in electricity taxes at the turn of the year.
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