S&P hits new century mark at 6,600 as markets celebrate, Fed meeting looms, and disruptive tech surges

• Algo’s continue to push…. S&P enters another new century mark.

• Equal Weight S&P ended lower – is that something to note?

• The FOMC meeting begins today – both Miran and Cook at the table.

• 25 today – 100 in total by next February!

• Reminiscences of a Stock Operator Inspired Recipe – Wagyu Smash Burgers.

And the week starts off with a BANG — markets in celebration mode, and you can’t make this up. All the indexes closed higher, with the S&P kissing 6600 before penetrating to close at yet another new century mark for 2025. Think about it: the S&P has now traded in 18 different centuries this year, from the low of 4834 back in April (Liberation Day) to yesterday’s close at 6615. Nothing short of remarkable.

At the end of the day – the Dow added 50 pts, the S&P up 31 pts, the Nasdaq rallied by 207 pts, the Russell was up 8, the Transports lost 52, the Equal Weight S&P LOST 16 pts (and that is interesting) while the Mag 7 continued to push higher…up 613 or 2%. Hjn

The story hasn’t changed — traders and algo’s are excited and remain convinced we’ll see 75 bps worth of cuts over the next three meetings (September, October, December), with another 25-bps penciled in for the January 2026 meeting (Jan 27–28). The narrative will now become not if we get a cut, but rather how fast future cuts are coming. Remember – Trump has been pushing for a BIG cut – something greater than the expected 25 bps. So, we can be sure that Trump will not be happy if we get what the market expects, and he’ll light up Truth Social with his own commentary!

Investors, Traders and Algo’s will also be paying very close attention to the ‘dot plot’ that will be created at this meeting. The dot plot is a chart (graph paper and #2 pencils marking a ‘dot’ on the ‘plot’) published 4 times/year as part of what the FED does. Each dot represents where an individual Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member (voting and non-voting) expects the federal funds rate to be at the end of each of the next few years, plus a “longer run” estimate. It’s not a promise or official policy. Rather, it’s a snapshot of expectations. Markets look closely at the median dot as a guide for where the Fed might go. It is important to note – the FED is NOT suggesting that the plot IS the forward guidance. Economic conditions can and do change quickly, thus the actual path of future rate moves often is different than what the plot may have suggested.

Changes in the dot plot (between this meeting and prior meetings) often signal shifts in Fed thinking. For example, if more dots move higher, it suggests policymakers see the need for more rate hikes; if they shift lower, it suggests future rate cuts. The dots are anonymous — you can’t tell which one belongs to Powell, Waller, Daly, Barker, Bostic, Musalem, or anyone else — but collectively they show how policymakers are thinking about the path of interest rates. (You may assume who owns a dot based on any recent commentary that individual members make when NOT in lock down mode, but you cannot be sure.)

You can also thank Lonnie for some of the fireworks. TSLA shares jumped 3.6% after Lonnie disclosed he bought $1 billion worth of TSLA via a revocable trust on Friday, (made public on Monday) igniting another rally in “Disruptive Tech.” That helped propel the (Disruptive Tech) ARKK etf up 2% on the day, and now +40% YTD. Other ARKK names include – COIN +30%, ROKU +26%, RBLX +130%, HOOD +208%, PLTR +126%, CRSP +46%, AMD +33%....and the list goes on.

Meanwhile, GOOG surged 4.5%, officially joining the $3 trillion club. What was once labeled an AI ‘disappointment’ has quickly become an AI ‘darling’. Remember, GOOG was left for dead earlier this year — down 32% as of April 7th — but as of last night it’s up 33% YTD outpacing even NVDA at +32% ytd.

Eco data today includes Advance Retail Sales m/m of +0.2%, Ex Autos and Gas of +0.4%. NY Fed Services Business Activity of -5.8 up from -11.7 last month. Import/Export prices, Industrial Production m/m of -0.1%, Capacity Utilization of 77.4 – (below 80 suggests less upward pressure on prices – positive). We will also get the latest NAHB Housing market Index of 33. The scale is 0-100. Below 50 suggests builders see weak conditions – above 50 suggests builders see stronger conditions. (But this should not be a surprise – how long have we been talking about housing conditions?)

Bonds rose a bit and that kept yields near their lows…..the 10-yr yield traded in a range of 4.02% - 4.08% only to settle at 4.03% this morning the 10 yr is steady. The 30-yr yield traded in a range of 4.64% - 4.705% only to settle at 4.66%. Again, this morning they too are steady.

Oil rose by 60 cts or 0.9% to end the day at $63.28 – leaving it within the trendlines…$62.92/$64.15. Keep your eyes on $61.75 – if we break that then $60 is around the corner. On the other side – there appears to be plenty of supply between $63.28 and long-term trendline resistance at $64.87 and with global supply expected to grow my gut says the path of least resistance is lower.

Gold surged by $35 yesterday to end the day at $3,678/oz and this morning it is up another $20 trading at $3,697 – I guess the idea that gold felt a bit fatigued was wrong partly because the dollar continues to weaken. Weaker dollar = stronger commodity prices. Now the dollar is down 11% this year and gold? Well, it’s up 41% this year. And when you add in all of the uncertainty around the economy and the FED – you also have that flight to safety…..But if you look at the chart – the move just feels unsustainable – but that’s me.

US futures at 6 am are mixed….. Dow futures down 15 pts, S&P’s up 12, the Nasdaq is up 72 while the Russell is up 2. Last night the Senate did in fact confirm Stevey Miran as a FED governor – replacing Adriana Kugler – just in time for this meeting. Lisa Cook – remains a voting member as well, when the appeals courts voted for a ‘stay of execution’ while they consider what to do.

European markets are lower…. Donny and Melania have landed in the UK and will be visiting with the King and Queen at Windsor Castle before moving on to meet with PM Kier Starmer. The unemployment rate in the UK held steady at 4.7% - remaining at a 4-yr high while earnings growth slowed to 4.8% down from 5% over the last 3 months. The BoE is due to announce their latest monetary policy decision this Thursday – NO rate cut is expected at this meeting.

The S&P closed at 6,615 up 31 pts. down 3 pts. This morning – markets are marching in line as the week begins. Now a look at the chart also suggests that the recent move is unsustainable…. reminding me of the famous John Keynes line:

“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

It reminds us that just because markets don’t make sense in the moment doesn’t mean they’ll snap back right away. Prices can defy fundamentals for weeks and months (some say even years) — which is why patience, discipline, and risk management matter more than trying to time every move.

Yesterday I told you that I just released a free audiobook — in both English and Spanish — on Spotify for investors new and old to enjoy. It’s a 6-part abridged edition of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, one of the all-time great market classics. A century later, its lessons still hit home and feel just as relevant today as they were then.

So today I am giving you another recipe that is inspired by the book and the recent market action -

Wagyu smash burgers (The boom)

Then comes the mania. In the Roaring ’20s, (both 1900 and 2000’s) fortunes were made overnight as the stock market became a national obsession. It was rich, fast, and intoxicating — just like the dot-com bubble or the AI frenzy today.

For this you need: 1 lb. ground Wagyu beef, s&p, 4 slices cheddar or American cheese, 1 large onion, thinly sliced, butter, 4 brioche buns.

Season the meat and divide into 4 loose balls.

Caramelize onions low and slow with butter.

Heat up a cast iron skillet with nothing it in…. Just get it hot.

Smash the beef balls into that screaming-hot skillet, add a dollop of butter, and sear for 2 minutes. Flip once, add cheese.

Toast buns in butter.

Build your burger with onions and toppings of choice.

This burger is: Decadent, indulgent, and a little messy — the flavor of excess. Just like a market at full tilt. Sound familiar?