Trump unchained

USD: Sept '25 is Up at 97.340.  

Energies: Nov '25 Crude is Up at 64.02.

Financials: The Dec '25 30 Year T-Bond is Higher by 3 ticks and trading at 116.22.

Indices: The Sep '25 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 42 ticks Higher and trading at 6725.50.

Gold: The Dec'25 Gold contract is trading Down at 3794.60.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The USD is Up and Crude is Up which is not normal, and the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Higher.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia traded Mixed.  All of Europe is trading Lower.

Possible challenges to traders

• New Home Sales is out at 10 AM EST.  This is Major.

• Crude Oil Inventories is out at 10:30 AM EST.  This is Major.

• FOMC Member Daly Speaks at 4:10 PM EST.  This is not Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT dived Lower at around 8 AM EST with eco news items pending.  The Dow climbed Higher at the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The Dow climbed Higher at around 8 AM EST and the ZT dived Lower at around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about a dozen plus ticks per contract on this trade.   Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for ZT is now Dec '25 and the Dow is now Dec '25.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of BarCharts

ZT -Sep 25 - 9/23/25

Dow - Sep 2025- 9/23/25

Bias

Yesterday we suggested a Down Day, and the markets didn't disappoint as the Dow fell by 89 points, and the other indices lost ground as well.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market, and our bias is Neutral or Mixed.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

When I was kid growing up in the Big Apple, I saw Steve Reeves starring Hercules Unchained.  Yesterday we witnessed President Trump Unchained addressing the UN General Assembly in New York.  Basically, Trump used that platform to criticize other countries, the past administration in the US and claimed that Global Warming was a hoax.  Of course no one countered what he said.  I don't think I've ever seen him so unwound before.  Some things he mentioned was quite true.  Illegal immigration for one.   Want to learn Market Correlation and determine market direction hours before the Opening Bell?