Oil prospects 2022
Both Brent (XBRUSD) and WTI (XTIUSD) have enjoyed a stable appreciation for the whole of 2021 with prices moving above pre-pandemic levels, see charts below.
OPEC+
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus is a loosely affiliated group 13 Opec member countries and 10 of world’s major non-Opec oil exporting nations. Collectively the y control >50% of global oil supplies and >90% of proven reserves.
In 2020, when the pandemic had a grip on planet Earth, oil prices tumbled due to almost non existence demand. OPEC+ were asked to cut productions to stabilize prices. As world leaders took decisive actions to contain Covid19 spread and re-align policies to cope with the Great Reset, oil demand came back. Albeit price hit 20 year lows before stabilizing.
This Great Reset is a global phenomenon which affects the 7 billion global population. Since 2021, in line with demand, OPEC+ increase their production too to align with appreciating prices.
Summary
As we approach the second quarter, the demand for heating oil may be dwindled in the Eurozone, but OPEC+ has no plans of production cuts.
With more countries are coping well on the pandemic, the Great Reset may not be that bad after all. Some countries have stated that Covid19 as an endemic, while some prefer to treat it as a common flu. That is good news for the global trade and economy.
Q2 may see oil prices dipping, technically shown on the charts. Prices are expected to test $60s, then a gradual rebound to Q4, winter months.
The geo-political and geo-social issues are always there on the back burner, just be prepared for surprises.
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