FPG: U.S. data spreads bad news again, and OPEC is ready to maintain oil prices at all costs Latest market news: 1. [OPEC is ready to maintain oil prices at all costs] OPEC released its latest monthly report, which is expected that China’s petrole oil demand will rebound this year and promote global economic growth, but it is still ”cautiously optimistic“ about the outlook of the world economy. The monthly report predicts that global oil demand will increase by 2.2 million barrels per day in 2023 to 101.7 million barrels per day; in the first quarter, the supply and demand of the crude oil market will remain balanced, and OPEC needs to provide an average of 28.85 million barrels of oil per day, about 120,000 barrels less than last month‘s forecast. . OPEC Secretary-General said that he was ready to maintain the balance of this year’s oil market ”at all costs“. Comments: The implication is to cut production to support oil prices. Previously, OPEC officials said that the oil price target is $100. 2. [Inflation Cuts Act] The United States and Europe negotiated the Inflation Cut Bill, but no substantive results were reached. German Chancellor Scholtz said that I am sure there will be no trade war between Europe and the United States, and I believe that Germany will avoid a recession this year. Comment: The United States introduced the Inflation Cut Act to subsidize producers in the United States. This heavy blow to foreign goods naturally makes European companies that are already in danger move factories to the United States to enjoy subsidies. 3. [The latest position data of WTI crude oil futures] CFTC position data: As of the week of January 10, the non-commercial net bull position of WTI original oil was 205,236 lots, a reduction of 22,371 lots compared with last week; long holdings reduced by 16,376 lots, empty The head increased its holdings by 5,995 lots, and the short power was strong. Comment: Overall, the unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil stocks, the poor prospects for global economic recovery, and increased demand worries limit fuel growth, dragging down oil prices. But investors should beware of OPEC+, which is a mostly cause. 4. [The New York Federal Reserve‘s manufacturing index plummeted to its lowest level since mid-2020] On Tuesday, January 17, the New York Federal Reserve released the New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index in January. In January, the index fell sharply by 22 points to -32.9 month-on-month, which was twice as bad as the worst expectations in the market. Comments: After the data was released, spot gold jumped to a daily high, but then the shorts recovered all the increase. Investors paid attention to it because the index provided details of manufacturing in New York, factory start-up rate, etc. In addition, it could also provide some clues such as commodity price trends and inflation. . 5. [Progress of the situation in Russia and Ukraine] Russian Defense Minister Schoigu said on the 17th that plans such as large-scale adjustment of Russian armed forces, increase in numbers and adjustment of military administrative divisions will be implemented between 2023 and 2026, of which the total strength of the Russian army will be expanded to 1.5 million. Comments: Asia-Pacific hot spots continue to ferment, and security risks are increasing day by day. Judging from the current development, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has a negative impact on the global security situation. 6. [France’s large-scale strike is about to appear] France‘s large-scale strike against the reform of the retirement system is about to appear on the 19th, and public transportation is expected to be seriously affected. According to the news released by Paris Volkswagen Transportation Company on the evening of the 17th, the passenger service of the Paris subway line will be seriously affected on the 19th. Among them, subway lines 8, 10 and 11 will cease operation on the same day, and more than 10 subway lines will only provide limited services during peak hours. Business. Only self-operated lines 1 and 14 remain normal. The capacity of the suburban railway express line was also significantly reduced on the same day. Comment: The French went on strike twice in three days. In addition to the influence of culture and salary, there may be some kind of continuous inertia and emotional vention. 7. [The German Chancellor appoints Pistorius as the new defense minister] German Chancellor Scholz appointed Boris Pistorius, 62-year-old Minister of the Interior of Lower Saxony and member of the Social Democratic Party, as the Federal Defense Minister on the 17th to replace Lambrey, who had previously resigned. Hitt. Pistorius will receive the appointment documents and be sworn in on the 19th. Comment: This man is a hawk who is expected to promote military cooperation between Germany and Ukraine. Nanshi, a special analyst at FPG, believes that: Driven by the economic recovery of China, the world’s largest consumer market, the retail demand for gold bars and gold coins will remain strong; however, in the short term, the price of gold may go too far or too fast and needs to be revised downward. If the price of gold falls from the current level to $1870-1900, the upward trend of gold can be It will be reversed. Dawson, a special analyst at FPG, believes that: In December last year, the Bank of Japan raised the allowable upper limit on benchmark 10-year treasury bond yields under its yield curve control policy, which strengthened the yen and shocked the market. In addition, since the Bank of Japan raised the yield curve control plan (YCC) ceiling last month, the yield on 10-year domestic bonds has been pushed above the ceiling set by the Bank of Japan for three days, further increasing the pressure on the Bank of Japan. If the Bank of Japan adjusts its policy again, its impact will spread to the whole world, and this move may stimulate a sharp appreciation of the yen. Today‘s intraday trading strategy suggests waiting for a low point to do more. The first support below is 128, the second support is 127.1. Look at the target above 130.5 Dave, a special analyst at FPG, believes that: In terms of crude oil, CFTC position data: At present, the non-commercial net bull position of WTI crude oil is 205,236 lots, a reduction of 22,371 lots compared with last week; the long holdings reduced by 16,376 lots, and the short holdings increased by 5,995 lots, which is strong short power. Driven by the following factors: 1. The global economic recession, weak demand and pressure on oil prices. 2. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike has dragged down oil prices. Overall, due to the unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil stocks, poor prospects for global economic recovery, and increased demand concerns to limit fuel growth, oil prices may drag down later. Looking at the intraday technology, today‘s operation recommendation is mainly empty, with an upper pressure of 81.4, and the first support below is 78.5. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex