FPG: The vice chairman of the Federal Reserve said that it is likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in February, and gold soared by 3 dollars. Latest market news: 1. [The vice chairman of the Federal Reserve said that it is likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in February] On January 19, local time, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Lael Brainard held a press conference, saying that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is likely to On February 1, the benchmark interest rate was raised by another 25 basis points to the target range of 4.5% to 4.75%. Comments: Weak dollar coupled with gold only digests good news. Spot gold stands at the 1930 integer mark, up more than 1.5%, quoted at 1931.99 USD/ounce. 2. [The U.S. Treasury Department took special measures to deal with the debt ceiling] On the 19th local time, the U.S. federal government touched the debt ceiling, and the U.S. Treasury Department began to take special measures to avoid debt defaults. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen wrote to Congress again, saying that the Treasury Department will launch a “bond issue period” from January 19 to June 5, during which new funds will be suspended for the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund and the Postal Retirement Health Benefits Fund. The purpose of this move is to continue to fund the operation of the federal government for the time being. Comments: Although every financial farce does not bring much fluctuation in the market, it also shows that the compromise between the two parties is becoming more and more difficult, and the frequency and time of farce is being staged. Investors should also beware of the farce becoming tragedies. 3. [Progress of the situation in Russia and Ukraine] On the 19th local time, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that it would provide military assistance worth $2.5 billion to Ukraine, including 90 Stryker armored vehicles and 59 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, excluding tanks. Germany said that unless the United States provided “Abrams” tanks to Ukraine, Germany would offer its main battle tanks. In response, Ukrainian President Zelensky criticized Germany for being “hesitant”. Comments: The situation in Russia and Ukraine is getting worse and worse, laying the deep momentum for the market. 4. [Unexpectedly strong high-frequency data in the U.S. labor market] The data on the first application for unemployment benefits released today was unexpectedly strong: only 190,000 new applications were not only lower than the expected 214,000, but also lower than last week’s 205,000. The newly announced U.S. unemployment rate continued to fall to 3.5% in December 2022, a 50-year low. Comments: Market selective blindness: Only the decline in CPI readings can’t be seen. Behind the boom in the job market, the rising spiral risk of salary-inflation has continued. 5. [Minute of the ECB Meeting] Many members initially expressed their preference for raising the ECB’s key interest rate by 75 basis points. Some people believe that raising interest rates by less than 75 basis points will send a wrong message and may be regarded as inconsistent with the 2% inflation target. At this meeting, the interest rate increase is 50 A basis point will enable the Commission to tighten monetary policy for a longer time and need to reverse the slowdown in interest rate hikes in market pricing. Comments: 50bps or 75bps I’m afraid it depends on the face of the capital market. 6. [Great strike broke out in France] According to the New York Times, more than 200 demonstrations are expected across the country, with an estimated 550,000 to 750,000 people participating. Affected by the strike, French intercity and commuter train services were basically suspended, a large number of schools and other public services were closed, one-fifth of Paris Orly Airport flights were cancelled, and only two lines remained in the Paris subway were working normally. Comment: The strike has been deeply rooted in the French souls and has become a part of French culture. 7. [Return of Trump’s approval ratings] A new poll shows that in a hypothetical Republican primary showdown, former President Trump is 17 percentage points ahead of Florida Governor Desantis. Trump’s lead is different from some polls since the November 2022 midterm elections, which show that Desantis has narrowed the gap with Trump, or in some cases. Comment: Trump is likely to return to the election. Analyst’s opinion: Nanshi, a special analyst at FPG, believes that: Spot gold continued to strengthen on Thursday, and there is a lot of data to support that inflation in the United States is receding, but the economy is becoming more and more fragile. The negotiation window for raising the U.S. debt ceiling is shorter than expected, worsening the economic outturn and enhancing market risk aversion. Technically, maintaining gold above 1922 represents the strength of bulls. If there is a stabilization point above 1922, the market is likely to rise further. Dawson, a special analyst at FPG, believes that: The latest decision of the Bank of Japan means that there may be a further struggle with bond bears, and this struggle may continue because there is no scheduled policy meeting in February. The Bank of Japan’s move to double the yield limit of 10-year treasury bonds to 0.5% in December triggered a sell-off of Japanese government bonds, forcing the Bank of Japan to buy record bonds to control yields, and exacerbated the liquidity problem that Governor Tohiko Kuroda aims to improve. The Bank of Japan purchased about 3 trillion yen ($23 billion) of government bonds on Monday and Tuesday, and spent nearly 10 trillion yen on the last two days of last week to defend its stimulus framework. Intraday trading, today’s strategy is mainly short. Pressure level 129.2, the first target below 126.6 Dave, a special analyst at FPG, believes that: Crude oil: Last December, the IEA raised its demand forecast based on the above expectations. However, the company said on Wednesday that the new demand will be about 200,000 barrels/day less than expected last month, because the winter temperature in Europe is higher than normal, which means that European utilities will continue to use natural gas instead of oil. On the supply side, IEA pointed out that oil supply is also increasing this year, and crude oil supply is expected to exceed demand by about 1 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year. Although China’s demand has recovered, demand growth may not occur until after the second quarter of this year. Overall, the IEA believes that the oil market will still face greater oversupply in the first quarter of this year. Go back to the market to watch today’s technical aspects. Today, it is recommended to short at a high level, with a pressure of 82 above, and the first target below 77. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex