UK inflation fell below analysts' forecasts in January 2023. But price pressures are still weighing on the economy. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) noted that UK inflation reached 10.1% in January 2023 year-on-year (yoy), down from 10.5% in December 2022. This figure was lower than economists' projection of 10.3% and was further away from the highest level in 41 years in October 2022 of 11.1%. However, high prices are still undermining household living standards.
Meanwhile, the core inflation rate excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco also fell to 5.8% in January 2023 (yoy) from 6.3% the previous month. In early February, the BOE (Bank Of England) saw signs that the surge in consumer prices had reversed and signaled that they were close to ending their trend of rising interest rates. One of the indicators the BOE has highlighted, the service price indicator, slowed its increase to 6% in January, down from 6.8% in December 2022.
"While any fall in inflation is welcome, the fight is far from over.” said Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt.
And although food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation slowed to 16.7%, it was barely changed from a 45-year record high of 16.8% in December. This means that the pressure on the cost of living on households is not much reduced.
“With energy and food prices remaining stubbornly high, poorer households continue to face far higher living costs than richer families" said James Smith, director of research at the Resolution Foundation think-tank.
Economists said the numbers add to signs that inflation will fall far from last year's peak, but could also herald a recession that is expected to hit the UK economy in 2023.
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