FPG:Gold bulls control the situation, but also be careful to encounter more sales. Latest market news: 1. [Trump was arrested after being summoned] During the trial, Trump defended his innocence on all 34 charges and did not comment when he left the court. The indictment was made public, and Trump faced 34 felony charges, with a maximum sentence of 136 years. Comments: Trump’s criminal case highlights and deepens the tearing of American politics and public opinion, which can be said to add fuel to the current economic situation in the United States. 2. [Economic data shows the weakness of the U.S. economy again] Following yesterday’s ISM manufacturing PMI index falling short of expectations, the economic data released on Tuesday showed the weakness of the U.S. economy again. U.S. factory orders unexpectedly fell short of expectations. The U.S. February JOLTs job vacancy data from 202 It fell below 10 million for the first time since May of the year. According to CME’s “Federal Reserve Watch”, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the interest rate unchanged in May is 59.9%. Comments: The U.S. economy suffered many setbacks in many aspects, which is the main reason for gold. 3. [Finland officially joined NATO] Finland became the 31st member of NATO. Finland’s accession has roughly doubled the length of the border between NATO and Russia. Ross warned that Finland’s accession to NATO may further escalate the conflict between Moscow and the West, and Russia will be forced to take countermeasures. Comments: Finland’s move to join NATO will accelerate the deterioration of the situation and force Russia to take countermeasures. 4. [OPEC + unexpected production cuts led to the substantial sell-off of bonds of Saudi Arabia and other countries] Since OPEC + unexpected production cuts last weekend, the price of crude oil has soared, investors have been selling bonds of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries. Some traders said that this unusual move reflected that the region’s bonds had become expensive. The dollar bonds issued by the government of the region were one of the biggest declines in emerging markets on Monday. Despite the sharp rise in oil prices, most of the bonds were still under pressure on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia’s bonds maturing in 2025 were the biggest declines in emerging markets and recorded a record decline. Comments: Generally speaking, rising oil prices will boost the market’s demand for the debt of energy exporting countries. 5. [The Bank of England’s interest rate cut may come earlier than expected] After a sharp interest rate hike in recent months, the Bank of England can start to cut interest rates earlier than expected. There are signs that the country’s inflationary pressure is weakening. The current market expectation is that the Bank of England is 75% likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May, and more than 50% by August. Comments: The Bank of England needs to adopt a looser policy stance to achieve the medium-term inflation target. 6. [Germany’s export volume in February increased by 4.0% month-on-month] According to the data released by the German Federal Bureau of Statistics on the 4th, after work day and seasonal adjustment, Germany’s export volume increased by 4.0% month-on-month to 136.7 billion euros in February 2023, which is 4 in 2022. The largest month-on-month increase since the month. According to the data, Germany’s imports increased by 4.6% month-on-month to 120.7 billion euros, and the foreign trade surplus was 16 billion euros. Comments: Germany’s export growth has benefited from the improvement of the supply chain and the opening of China’s economy. Foreign trade can make up for weak private consumption and the sluggish construction industry to a certain extent. FPG special analyst King’s opinion: The job market is beginning to cool down, which is good news for the Federal Reserve, which is fighting inflation. Because the strong labor market may put upward pressure on wages and overall prices. As the U.S. economy slows down, companies may cut job vacancies. If non-agricultural and CPI data also show signs of weakness, the Federal Reserve may consider suspending interest rate hikes at the next meeting. FPG special analyst Dawson’s opinion: U.S. Treasury yields have fluctuated greatly recently, with frequent gains and declines of more than 10 or even dozens of basis points during the day, which has made the already impacted bond investors more difficult. Previously, investors had longed that the bond market would return to normal in 2023, but now they have to abandon this idea and look for flexible investment to control the most volatile market since 2008. FPG special analyst Dave’s opinion: Oil prices have risen by more than a quarter since their lows in March, when the banking crisis damaged investors’ preference for risky assets, including oil. Before the boost brought by OPEC+ production cuts, the expectation of rising demand in Asia supported the rise in oil prices. In addition, the weakening of the dollar also helps to increase the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities. FPG special analyst Yue Lin’s opinion: Since the beginning of 2021, the bonds of GCC member countries have performed better than those of developing countries, because the rebound in raw oil prices has increased the income of these countries. At a time when the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the rise in the yield of U.S. treasury bonds raises concerns about the wave of defaults in the entire emerging market, investors are also seeking relatively safe assets, including bond assets from overseas countries. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex