FPG:The U.S. dollar has bottomed out, gold is gaining a lot, which is unstoppable Latest market news: 1. [The world economy is facing the dilemma of weak growth and high inflation] Georgieva, president of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said in Washington on the 13th local time that after many “shocks” in the past three years, although the world economy is still resilient, it is facing the dilemma of weak growth and high inflation. . In the latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF expects the global economic growth rate to drop to 2.8% in 2023, and the global economic growth rate is expected to be maintained at about 3% in the next five years, which is the lowest medium-term economic growth forecast in the past few decades. Comments: The current economic situation is that inflation is high; geo-economic fragmentation affects trade and capital flows; the recent turmoil in the banking industry has made it more complicated to deal with inflation and maintain financial stability. 2. [The U.S. Department of Justice arrested a member of the National Guard suspected of leaking military confidential documents] U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland said on the 13th that the Department of Justice arrested a member of the U.S. Air Force National Guard on the same day, who was related to the recent exposure of confidential documents such as the U.S. Garland said at a press conference held by the Department of Justice on the same day that FBI agents arrested and detained Jack Teixeira in the afternoon of the same day, who was suspected of “removing, storing and disseminating confidential defense information without permission” and would accept the federal district court in Massachusetts where he was arrested. Review. Comments: The United States is not only deeply involved in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but also continues to monitor many countries, including its allies. 3. [The global call for “de-dollarization” is rising. Is the dollar not good?] Recently, many countries have launched different measures to strengthen local currency settlement and reduce the use of US dollars in international trade and investment. This wave of global “de-dollarization” has something to do with a series of operations in the United States, and the international monetary system may be diversified in the future. Comments: “de-dollarization” is driven by multiple reasons, but in the final analysis, it is still because the United States is against globalization and abuses financial hegemony. 4. [Turkish Foreign Minister said that Turkey will resume diplomatic relations with Egypt at the ambassadorial level] Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusshoglu said on the 13th that Turkey and Egypt agreed to improve bilateral relations and restore diplomatic relations between the two countries to the ambassador level. Chavus Oulu met with visiting Egyptian Foreign Minister Shukeri in Ankara on the same day. At the joint press conference held after the meeting, Cavushoglu said that Turkey and Egypt are taking concrete steps to restore diplomatic relations between the two countries from the agency level to the ambassador level, and the two countries will soon issue a joint statement of mutual ambassadors. Comments: The focus of the talks between the two sides is to strengthen bilateral relations and expand cooperation in the political, economic and cultural fields. 5. [Germany agrees that Poland will provide MiG fighters to Ukraine] On the 13th, the German government has agreed that Poland will provide Ukran with MiG-29 jet fighters from the inventory of the former East German People’s Army. In mid-March, Poland announced that it was ready to provide the first MiG jet fighters to Ukraine. Since then, Poland has provided 8 aircraft to Ukraine. If it is purchased from Germany, according to the provisions of the contract at that time, the written consent of Germany is required. Comments: Providing fighter jets to Ukraine has always been regarded as a taboo within NATO, but now the attitude of several allies has changed. It directly leads to the escalation of the war situation. 6. [Japan has been pushing “discharge into the sea” for two years and has attracted strong opposition] The Japanese government unilaterally announced the decision to discharge the nuclear pollution water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the sea. Two years later, the Japanese government did not revoke the above decision, but announced that it would start the discharge of nuclear contaminated water this spring and summer. The Japanese government’s insistent intention has aroused widespread doubts and opposition at home and abroad. Comments: Discharge into the sea is an act of “exporting public hazards”, and the ecological disaster is difficult to predict. The international community should jointly urge Japan to treat nuclear contaminated water in an open, transparent, scientific and safe manner. FPG special analyst King’s opinion: At present, major overseas central banks show the characteristics of policy path differentiation. When the market is hotly discussing whether the end of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike is approaching, some central banks have pressed the “suspension button” for raising interest rates, while the European Central Bank is still discussing raising interest rates. Institutional officials believe that the most intense global interest rate hike in decades is expected to come to an end, and major central banks need to strike a balance between anti-inflation and economic stability. From the perspective of investment, the US dollar tends to be weak, and gold has allocation value. At the same time, we need to be alert to the disturbance caused by the expected revision of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. FPG special analyst Dawson’s opinion: The number of initial recruits in the United States rose for the first time in three weeks, with California accounting for more than one-third of the growth, indicating that the labor market is showing some signs of softening. This also increases the evidence that the labor market began to weaken after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. FPG special analyst Dave’s opinion: The eighth round of price adjustment window period of this year will be held at 24:00 on April 17 ( next Monday). According to industry institutions, until April 13, the 8th working day of this round of refined oil price adjustment, the change rate of reference crude oil is 12.01%, and the domestic refined oil is expected to increase by 510 yuan/ton, which is converted into an increase of 0.40 yuan/up to 0.44 yuan/ Up. There are still two working days before the final price adjustment date. According to the current crude oil change rate data, the oil price is likely to refresh the largest increase this year on the evening of next Monday. FPG special analyst Yue Lin’s opinion: As the factors driving the strengthening of the US dollar in 2022 (including the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and the energy crisis) are fading, the U.S. dollar may weaken. Since then, these two factors have changed dramatically. U.S. terminal interest rates are expected to fall more than their European counterparts. At the same time, oil prices have fallen from highs, and the shortage of natural gas in Europe is not as serious as expected. Assuming that the market avoids further surprises such as the banking crisis, as long as Europe’s economic growth can be maintained, we think the US dollar may fall from now on. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex