FPG ：Gold is high but not invulnerable, while silver has shown bearish signals 1. 【Black Sea Grain Agreement】The Russian Ministry of Defense stated in its telegram that starting from this Thursday, all ships heading to Ukrainian ports will be treated as potential military cargo vessels, and certain areas of the Black Sea have been temporarily declared as dangerous navigation zones. This has escalated military risks in the region and may even dampen the already slim hope of Ukraine restarting grain exports via the Black Sea. Comment: Wheat futures surged by 9% at one point, hitting the daily limit, indicating that the most direct impact of the interruption of the Black Sea grain agreement will be on Africa. 2. 【API Weekly Report】The American Petroleum Institute (API) released its weekly statistical report as of July 14. The data shows that API crude oil inventories decreased by 797,000 barrels, which was expected to decrease by 2.25 million barrels. Comment: This week, overall US petroleum inventories recorded a decline. It is worth noting that the decrease in US gasoline inventories exceeded expectations, reflecting tight local gasoline supplies during the peak travel season. Although some refineries have started to resume supplies, the current demand performance remains relatively stable, and inventories are at a low level. The gasoline market structure is still supported in the short term, so it may not be an opportune time to short crude oil. 3. 【ASIC Cancels Cryptocurrency Exchange】The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has canceled the Australian Financial Services (AFS) license of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX. Comment: This week, the US SEC also initiated the review of a Bitcoin spot ETF, and more mainstream institutions have blocked cryptocurrency from becoming digital assets, believing that the risk of digital currency is too high. 4. 【US Dollar Falls to Over One-Year Low】The US dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.15% to 99.753, hovering near last Friday's low of 99.574, the lowest level since April 2022. Comment: The reason for this is that the tightening cycle of the Federal Reserve is expected to shift to an easing cycle, which will weigh on the US dollar. However, other central banks are also cutting interest rates, so investors are advised not to be overly bearish on the US dollar. 5. 【Tesla CEO Musk's Suggestion】 Musk suggested that investors hold Tesla like Warren Buffett's value investment, but Tesla's after-hours decline expanded to 2.4%. Comment: This is mainly due to the slight decline in Tesla's production in the third quarter, and if the economic environment remains unstable, the price may continue to decline. 【UK Inflation Cools More Than Expected】 On Wednesday, local time, data from the UK's Office for National Statistics showed that UK CPI rose 7.9% year on year in June, lower than the expected 8.2% and far below the previous value of 8.7% in May. The year-on-year CPI growth in June in the UK fell below 8% for the first time in over a year, reaching its lowest level since March 2022, and marked the first time in five months that it was below expectations, the largest deviation from expectations since July 2021. Comment: The market is pleased that inflation may have peaked, but the question is how long high inflation will persist, which may exceed expectations. FPG special analyst King’s opinion: The price of gold has reached the target price of 1977.25 USD/ounce. At present, the market is waiting for gold to obtain positive momentum, and push the gold price to further rise to the next target price of 2000.00 USD/ounce, and the higher target is 2016.90. USD/ounce. But from the perspective of order distribution, it seems difficult for gold to break through the new high again, unless there is some information. Face-to-face cooperation. According to the position report, the gold sentiment began to turn short. FPG special analyst Dawson Daosheng’s opinion: U.S. crude oil fluctuates in a narrow range. Asian powers promised to support economic growth, Russia tightened supply, and U.S. crude oil inventories fell last week. The fundamentals are still bullish, so it is not yet time for crude oil to be short. It is recommended that you continue to wait and see. It is expected that crude oil may have a retaliatory decline in the future. Dave, a special analyst at FPG: As previously released data showed that the decline in the UK in June exceeded economists’ expectations, causing the pound to fall sharply against other major currencies. On this trading day, we need to focus on the changes in the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States and the annualized total number of home sales in June in the United States. Pay attention to the initial value of the Australian employment data and the consumer confidence index in the euro area in July. The technical momentum of the US dollar is still empty, and it is difficult to make further progress. The pound is expected to continue its previous downward trend. FPG special analyst Yue Lin’s point of view: The three major U.S. indexes closed up collectively again, and the Dow achieved eight consecutive rises, the first time since September 2019. The data shows that the second quarter of the financial reporting season of U.S. stocks started well. According to Factset statistics, 78% of the performance of S&P 500 component stocks exceeded expectations, which, together with the overall good profitability of bank stocks, supports investors’ optimistic forecasts for a soft landing of the economy. However, Goldman Sachs’ financial report was not good, and it became the first large bank on Wall Street to fall short of expectations, but the CEO’s speech gave market confidence and the stock price rose slightly. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex