FPG ：the expectation that the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates seems to be tapering off 1. [Market Certain about Federal Reserve's 0.25% Interest Rate Hike Next Week] According to the CME's FedWatch interest rate futures tool, the market is highly confident (99.8%) that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 0.25% in July. Economists surveyed also share a similar expectation, anticipating that the Fed will conclude its 16-month interest rate hike cycle after the upcoming rate increase. Comments: With the Federal Reserve's decisive interest rate hikes, the U.S. economy has shown resilience, with consumer spending remaining strong and even the housing market experiencing renewed vigor. The risks of a sharp economic downturn seem to be diminishing. 2. [India Implements Rice Export Ban] On July 20, the Indian government announced a ban on the export of rice, with the exception of steamed grain rice and Indian fragrant rice, to ensure sufficient supply in the domestic market. The ban took effect immediately. Comments: India plays a significant role in the global rice market, accounting for over 40% of the world's rice exports. This move to restrict rice exports raises concerns about potential food price increases in the global market. 3. [Russia-Ukraine Situation Update] President Putin mentioned that the counterattack launched by Kiev has not succeeded. There have been reports from Russian media indicating that the Ukrainian army used cluster ammunition in Belgorod Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that four Russian journalists were killed in an attack by the Ukrainian army, raising tensions in the region. Comments: The situation remains tense between Russia and Ukraine, with both sides engaged in military actions. The conflict has caused casualties and heightened anxiety in the region. 4. [BMW Group Reports Strong Q2 2023 Sales] BMW Group announced its global sales data for the second quarter of 2023, with total sales reaching 626,726 vehicles, marking an impressive 11% year-on-year increase. Within this, the BMW brand sold 553,369 vehicles, also showing an 11% year-on-year growth. The group's year-to-date sales stood at 1,071,326 units, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase. On the other hand, Mini brand's sales reached 71,816 vehicles, indicating a 10% year-on-year growth, though its year-to-date sales experienced a marginal 0.2% year-on-year decline, totaling 140,357 units. Comments: Despite the ice cream incident, BMW's sales remained robust in the second quarter, with an impressive increase of over 3,034 vehicles sold. 5. [Tesla's Market Value Declines Significantly] Tesla recently released its financial report for the second quarter of 2023, revealing a revenue of $24.927 billion, a substantial 47% increase compared to the same period last year. Comments: Although Tesla achieved record revenue, fierce competition with its rivals and the need to reduce prices substantially to stay competitive might put pressure on its profitability in the future. 6.[Japan's Trade Surplus in Two Years] According to the latest trade statistics report released by the Ministry of Finance of Japan, the trade balance (exports minus imports) showed a surplus of 43 billion yen in June, marking the first surplus in 23 months. Comments: Japan's trade balance has undergone a "structural" adjustment, and in June, exports to the United States increased by 11.7% year-on-year, while exports to China declined by 11% year-on-year, continuing a downward trend for the seventh consecutive month. FPG Special Analyst King's Opinion: The market's anticipation of the Federal Reserve ending its tightening cycle after raising interest rates at the July meeting has led fund managers to increase their long positions in gold. This surge in demand for gold is likely due to the belief that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July, potentially marking the last interest rate hike in this tightening cycle. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell previously predicted two interest rate hikes of 25 basis points each in the second half of the year. However, the expectation of the upcoming rate hike has already been factored into the gold price, and investors should be cautious about the possibility of a significant decline in gold. FPG Special Analyst Dawson Daosheng's Opinion: U.S. crude oil experienced fluctuations on Friday, driven by China's substantial oil imports surge of nearly 50% year-on-year in June. The expected growth in China's demand for oil in the second half of the year is likely to be a significant driver of global growth. However, investors should remain vigilant about potential oil price shocks. Dave, a Special Analyst at FPG: The onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar opened at 7.2258, and the People's Bank of China issued an announcement to further improve the macro-prudential management of foreign financing. By increasing the cross-border funding sources of enterprises and financial institutions, this move aims to optimize the asset and liability structure. The decision to raise the macro-prudential adjustment parameters of cross-border financing of enterprises and financial institutions from 1.25 to 1.5 will increase the upper limit of cross-border financing for them. This step benefits small and medium-sized enterprises and private enterprises, enabling them to utilize various international and domestic channels to raise funds effectively. Moreover, it will increase the liquidity of the domestic US dollar and alleviate the pressure of RMB depreciation. FPG Special Analyst Yue Lin's Point of View: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently announced the results of the revision of certain provisions under the Investment Companies Act of 1940 to regulate commodity funds. The SEC intends to strengthen the robustness of the commodity market. The statement mentioned that in March 2020, investors adjusted their investment plans due to concerns about the impact of the epidemic on the economy. Institutional commodity funds and duty-free commodity funds witnessed a significant outflow of funds, adding pressure to the short-term financing market. The revised regulations aim to address these issues and may lead to a major adjustment in the U.S. commodity market, valued at $5.46 trillion (approximately 40 trillion yuan). The SEC's reform has caused considerable upheaval in the financial industry. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex