FPG ：As of the current situation, U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar are facing downward pressure, while gold is also experiencing downward pressure. 1. [Fitch downgrades U.S. credit rating to "AA+"] On August 1, Fitch, the international rating agency, announced the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating from "AAA" to "AA+". Fitch cited concerns over the high and increasing debt burden of the U.S. government, projecting further deterioration in the country's financial situation over the next three years. Comments: The U.S. government's debt is essentially represented by U.S. treasury bonds, which are considered safe-haven assets. However, the increasing debt levels and potential risks have prompted Fitch to lower its credit rating, indicating that there may be growing concerns about the U.S. financial stability. 2. [Federal Reserve's "dove" Gulsby dismisses interest rate cut views] Federal Reserve's Gulsby stated that any future policy tightening measures will depend on the price trends and the need to reduce the general ledger level. He also emphasized that any interest rate cuts are unlikely to happen in the near future. Comments: The Federal Reserve has recently raised interest rates by 25 basis points, signaling its commitment to address the surging inflation. However, the pace of future interest rate hikes remains uncertain, and policymakers are closely monitoring economic data to guide their decisions. Gulsby's remarks suggest that more data will be needed to determine the direction of monetary policy. 3. [Export control for some UAVs and UAV-related items] The Ministry of Commerce, along with four other departments, announced the implementation of temporary export control measures for certain unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and related items, starting from September 1. The export control is not a complete ban, and exports for legal civilian purposes can proceed after fulfilling relevant procedures. DJI, a major drone manufacturer, stated that it will adhere to the export control policy, ensuring compliance and fulfilling corporate social responsibility. Comments: The export control measures come in response to the potential misuse of civilian drones for military purposes in conflict zones. The authorities aim to regulate and monitor the exports of UAVs and related technologies to prevent misuse and maintain international security standards. 4. [Trump prosecuted for the third time] According to a recent report from NBC, former U.S. President Trump is facing prosecution on suspicion of attempting to overturn the outcome of the 2020 election, specifically related to the January 6, 2021, "Congressional Hill riots" incident. This marks the third time he has faced criminal charges, as he was previously prosecuted for alleged "hush money" payments and involvement with "confidential documents," to which he pleaded not guilty. Comments: This legal action against Trump comes at a politically sensitive time, potentially impacting his potential presidential campaign in 2024. 5. [Room temperature superconductivity concept boosts U.S. superconducting stocks] On August 1, U.S. Eastern Time, U.S. superconducting stocks surged by 150% before the market, ultimately closing up 60%, marking the highest surge in five consecutive days since November 2021. The surge was attributed to the hype around the concept of room temperature superconductivity, with companies competing to achieve a breakthrough in this field. Quantum, a U.S. company, revealed a new room temperature superconducting material - a graphene foam material, which has garnered attention despite being considered very fragile. Comments: The increase in U.S. superconducting stocks is likely due to speculative market activity driven by the excitement around room temperature superconductivity, but investors should exercise caution and be aware of potential risks. [Spot Gold] On Tuesday, spot gold prices were impacted by the rising yields of the U.S. index and U.S. bonds, leading to a decline of more than 30 points from the intraday high. The U.S. dollar also fell to a day-to-day low of $1941.33 in the U.S. market, and spot gold finally closed down 0.3% at $1944.37 per ounce. Comments: However, after Fitch's announcement of the U.S. credit rating downgrade, spot gold opened $6 higher on Wednesday. FPG special analyst King's opinion: Despite the recent data showing contraction in the U.S. manufacturing industry for the ninth consecutive month in July, and a slight decline in the number of jobs in June, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar put pressure on precious metal prices. Spot gold initially fell but rebounded after reaching $11960 per ounce in the short term, rising above this threshold. The next challenges for gold are the $2,000/ounce level and the 61.8% Fibonacci decline from May to June (close to $2010/ounce). A breakthrough above these levels could give gold buyers more control. FPG special analyst Dawson Daosheng’s opinion: The recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar and profit-taking trading have put pressure on crude oil prices, leading to a fall in crude oil futures after a strong performance in July. However, crude oil prices are still fluctuating within a narrow range near the high level of nearly three and a half months. Looking ahead, OPEC member countries' production cuts and the ongoing tight supply situation, along with continued demand growth, are likely to support the sentiment of the short-term crude oil market. The upcoming meeting in September in Europe may be a pivotal point leading to the end of the interest rate hike. The market is expecting further interest rate hikes, possibly in December at the latest. The eurozone's short-term outlook has deteriorated, and the departure of ECB President Lagarde has left uncertainties. Germany remains a major weak point in the eurozone, with its GDP remaining flat for the past 46 months. The general ledger has cooled down this month, but the rate of 6.5% is still more than three times the target, leading to speculations that Germany may face stagnation. Dave, a special analyst at FPG: Similar to Dawson Daosheng's analysis, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and profit-taking trading have impacted crude oil prices, leading to a decline in crude oil futures after a strong performance in July. However, crude oil prices remain near the high level of nearly three and a half months, and the short-term market sentiment for crude oil continues to improve. OPEC member countries' production cuts and the tight supply situation are expected to continue, while demand growth supports the market. FPG special analyst Yue Lin’s point of view: The market is closely evaluating the financial reports of various enterprises and waiting for Friday's non-agricultural employment data and the number of job vacancies in June. The U.S. stocks showed a mixed closing trend, with the Dow rising slightly and reaching its highest intraday record in over a year, while the Nasdaq index and the S&P fell. Data showed that factory activities in the United States have contracted for the ninth consecutive month in July, indicating weak demand for U.S. goods both domestically and internationally. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex