USD: Keep an eye on Waller's speech FX markets have been struggling to find clear direction since the start of the week, with US data still giving contrasting signals. Yesterday, consumer confidence took a hit, as both the March and a revised February print ticked below 105.0. However, durable goods orders were strong and beat expectations. we have looked closely at the non-defence capital goods orders ex. aircraft gauge, which came in at a solid 0.7% in February but was revised lower to a 0.4% contraction in January. This is the best leading indicator for business capex, which has been rangebound in dollar terms since May 2022, meaning it has actually declined in real terms. In other words, the strong economic and equity performance in the US is not being paired with any rise in investment. When it comes to Fed pricing, we doubt expectations for the June meeting will change much this week unless we see a surprise in Friday’s PCE. There is still 19bp priced in for June and 78bp by year-end, which pretty much mirrors the March median dot plot. Some quarter-end flows may slightly mix up the FX picture today, but the dollar appears in stabilisation mode.