Product: XAU/USD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis: Gold (XAU/USD) price is slightly lower, trading around $2,310, as positive market sentiment weighs on the safe-haven asset. This comes despite a survey showing strong expected demand for gold from central banks in 2024. The decline is driven by risk-on sentiment, with stocks reaching new highs and expectations of a US interest rate cut, which is negative for non-yielding gold. However, the survey indicates central banks view gold as a long-term store of value and inflation hedge, suggesting robust future demand that could support the gold price.
Technical Analysis: The gold price is forming a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart, which often signals a trend change. The pattern has left and right "shoulders" with a "head" in the middle, and the neckline support is at $2,279. Declining momentum shown by the Relative Strength Index supports the bearish outlook. If the price breaks below the neckline, it would confirm the pattern and suggest further declines, with targets at $2,171 and $2,106. However, a rise above $2,345 would cast doubt on the head-and-shoulders and could signal a continuation of the uptrend, with an initial target at the $2,450 peak.
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