🌅 Morning Update | 19.06.2025 🇺🇸 US Markets Closed US financial markets, including NYSE, Nasdaq and bonds, are closed today for the Juneteenth holiday. Despite the break, geopolitical risks keep traders on edge — focus remains on possible US intervention in the Middle East. ⚔️ US–Iran Tensions Rise Reports suggest the US may launch a military strike on Iran as soon as this weekend, targeting sites like the Fordow nuclear complex. Trump has approved the plan in principle but is waiting for de-escalation signs. Israeli forces have also ordered evacuations near Iran’s Arak complex — the first such alert outside Tehran — hinting at close coordination. 💵 Dollar Firms Up The US dollar gained ground against EUR, JPY, GBP and AUD. US stock index futures fell early but pared losses later in the session. 🛢️ Oil’s Risk Premium Goldman Sachs says Brent crude (now ~$76–77/bbl) includes a $10 risk premium. They still expect $60/bbl by Q4 but warn a direct US–Iran clash could lift prices above $90. 🇳🇿 NZ GDP Surprises New Zealand’s Q1 GDP rose +0.8% q/q, beating forecasts and ending its technical recession. Annual growth remained negative (-0.7%) but better than expected. NZD reaction was muted. 🇦🇺 Australia Jobs Data Australia shed 2,500 jobs in May (vs +25,000 expected). However, full-time jobs jumped, with losses mainly in temp work. Unemployment held at 4.1%. Markets still expect the RBA to cut rates in July. 🇨🇭🇬🇧 Central Banks in Focus The Swiss National Bank is set to cut rates by 25 bps today to fight deflation. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is likely to hold steady, but the vote split may hint at future moves. 📌 What to Watch This wraps up a busy central bank week in Europe — all eyes now on geopolitics and energy markets for the next catalyst.