🛡️ Geopolitics and Gold: Updated Perspectives
Geopolitical risk continues to fuel demand for gold. President Trump’s recent trade threats against the EU and Mexico, alongside tensions over potential leadership changes at the Federal Reserve, are keeping markets on edge. At the same time, ongoing military escalations in the Middle East are driving safe-haven flows into precious metals.
📈 Central Banks Double Down
Central banks added around 244 tonnes of gold in Q1 2025, on track to match or exceed last year’s record of over 1,000 tonnes. Nearly every major central bank plans to continue accumulating reserves. This long-term structural demand is a key pillar of gold’s current strength.
💰 Gold Prices and Market Sentiment
Gold is trading near $3,330 per ounce – up roughly 26% year-to-date. Although prices have pulled back slightly from the April high above $3,500, momentum remains strong. With rising recession risks, a weakening dollar, and volatile global politics, analysts are now pointing to $4,000 as a realistic target by mid-2026.
🇮🇳 India Slows Down
Gold imports in India fell sharply in June – down 40% month-on-month to just 21 tonnes. Record-high prices above ₹101,000 per 10 grams have cooled jewellery demand. However, traders expect a rebound later in Q3 as the festive season approaches. Meanwhile, silver demand in India is rising as a lower-cost alternative.
🎯 Investor Takeaways
– Gold remains a reliable hedge amid economic and political uncertainty
– A 5–10% portfolio allocation can enhance risk-adjusted returns
– Central bank activity, dollar strength, and geopolitical headlines remain key triggers
– Keep an eye on Asian demand trends as they often lead global cycles
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