🌅 Morning Update | 16 December 2025
🌏 Asia–Pacific markets are extending the sell-off seen on Wall Street. Chinese indices are down by up to 2.20%, Australia is lower by 0.50%, South Korea is down more than 2.00%, while Japan’s JP225 is off 1.35%. The pressure reflects global weakness in the tech sector, stretched valuations and ongoing macro uncertainty rather than local factors.
🇦🇺 RBA outlook: CBA now expects a 25 bp rate hike in February 2026, citing growth near potential, a tight labour market and sticky core inflation. NAB and Citi are even more hawkish, forecasting two hikes in 2026 (February and May). Markets remain cautious, pricing just over a 70% probability of no move in February, with a hike only partially priced later in the year.
🇳🇿 New Zealand: Food-price inflation declined m/m but remains elevated y/y. With food making up nearly 20% of the CPI basket, even small monthly drops can meaningfully ease headline inflation.
📊 Australia PMI: The flash composite PMI slipped to 51.1 in December from 52.6, the lowest in seven months but still in expansion territory. Services weakened on softer exports and rising competition, while manufacturing remained relatively stable.
📉 Consumer sentiment: The Westpac–Melbourne Institute index fell 9% to 94.5, unwinding much of November’s surge and pushing sentiment clearly below the neutral 100 level.
🇯🇵 Japan PMI: The flash composite PMI eased to 51.5 from 52.0, marking a ninth month of expansion at a slower pace. Services remained the main driver, while manufacturing improved to 49.7, the smallest contraction in around 18 months. New orders returned to growth.
🇺🇸 Crypto regulation: The US Senate Banking Committee confirmed it will not take up the long-awaited crypto market-structure bill this year, delaying progress until at least early 2026.
NORDFX Global
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