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Fed to decide amid trade, geopolitical chaos
US stocks sold off, oil and natural gas rallied, and the US dollar gained as US Treasuries and gold attracted safe-haven flows. Mounting tensions between Israel and Iran, alongside Donald Trump’s early departure from the G7 meeting, spurred concerns that the US could become involved in the Middle Ea
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Why are stocks holding up so well?
S&P 500 reversed Sunday‘s bearish gap, but market breadth readings are inconclusive, not invalidating the technical picture presented in length in the weekend video. Today‘s video highlights the Mideast developments as seen through various indices, USD and oil – what these mean for stocks and ri
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CAD retains a firm undertone but ignores crude swings – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) retains a firm undertone against a generally softer US Dollar (USD). The CAD’s performance since the outbreak of Israel/Iran hostilities last week is fairly middling among the major currencies, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Little scope for counter t
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US inflation and jobless claims in focus as UK data looms
Global markets remain driven by softer US inflation data, which has weighed on the US dollar amid rising expectations for a potential Fed rate cut in September. Adding to the dollar’s pressure, optimistic headlines around a US-China trade agreement have lifted global risk sentiment. United States –
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The commodities feed: US Crude Oil supply to fall in 2026
The Energy Information Administration expects US crude oil production to fall next year. Meanwhile, the European Commission is proposing a ban on refined product imports made from Russian crude oil. Energy – US Oil production set to decline The Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its US
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What’s to lead after NFPs?
S&P 500 rose following NFPs beat, but alongside Nasdaq sold off into the close – unlike Russell 2000. Markets chose to ignore weakening macro elements from prior months‘ downside revisions (95K for two months is a lot), decreasing participation rate or wobbly used car prices. The consumer is sim
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Technical analysis – Gold tests 3,300 as downside pressures persist
Gold is in danger of breaching 3,300 after false breakout. 20-day SMA is holding as support for now. Neutral-to-bearish bias in the short term. Gold hasn’t had the best start to the week, as it faces selling pressure for the third straight day, following the false breakout from the bullish pennant f
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United States: Growth outlook cooling but not collapsing
We downgrade our US growth forecasts amid the trade war, but do not expect an outright recession. We forecast 2025 GDP growth at 1.6% (from 2.3%) and 2026 at 1.3% in 2026 (from 1.9%). In quarterly terms, we pencil in majority of the negative impact for Q3 and Q4 of 2025 and expect sequential growth
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Australian Dollar extends gains as sentiment improves following a Trump-Xi phone call
The Australian Dollar holds gains, potentially driven by a productive phone call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.President Trump described the call as productive, and negotiations on tariffs are set to continue.US Nonfarm Payrolls could have added 130,000 jobs in May, meanwhile, the Unemployment
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EUR/USD climbs to six-week high as ECB cuts interest rates, US Jobless Claims disappoint
EUR/USD extends its gains, reaching its highest level since April 22 on Thursday.The ECB cuts its key interest rate by 25 bps, signaling a data-dependent approach moving forward.US Initial Jobless Claims rise to 247,000, adding pressure on the US Dollar ahead of the May NFP report due on Friday. The
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EUR/USD eyes key resistance as ECB decision looms
EURUSD holds moderate weekly gains ahead of ECB policy meeting. Short-term bias remains positive, but key resistance looms at 1.1450. EURUSD is trading modestly higher so far this week, encountering a key juncture near the 1.1450 level, which quickly halted Monday’s recovery attempt. The weak moment
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Gold bulls sit on edge – Uptrend valid if $3,345-$3,333 support hold good
Gold has broken the resistance trendline of broad descending channel.Current bullish momentum largely depends on price holding above immediate support $3345 and $3333.Further upside gets strong note of affirmation on break above $3375.Next resistance sits at $3392 - $3398.Major Resistance $3420-$343
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US FBI Director: China targets our food supply, putting American lives at serious risk
Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Director Kash Patel confirmed via post on X the arrest of two Chinese nationals charged for smuggling potential bioterror fungus into the US. This comes amid intensifying US-Chian trade tensions, with markets eagerly awaiting the talks between US President Donal
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RBA Minutes: Not yet time to move monetary policy to an expansionary setting
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published the Minutes of its May monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, highlighting that the board decided the case for a 25 basis points (bps) cut was a stronger one and preferred policy to be cautious and predictable. Additional takeaways The board considered keep
