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The price action this week confirms the USD being captured in a sell-on-upticks pattern
Markets Lacking guidance from US markets (closed for Juneteenth) and with hardly any EMU data scheduled for release, the EMU yield curve showed some modest bear steepening (German 2‐y unchanged, 30‐y +2.8 bps). The Fed decision on Wednesday maybe served as a reminder that overall uncertainty/low vis
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Consumer confidence rounds out the week
In focus todayThe conflict between Israel and Iran has now been raging for seven days. While the US has currently assisted Israel only by shooting down Iranian missiles, US President Trump said yesterday that a potential US involvement would be decided within the next two weeks, amid Germany, Fance
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SPX FOMC game plan
S&P 500 was duly disappointed by retail sales, and another push lower came on Trump‘s Mideast statements. Today‘s spotlight will be FOMC and tough explanation of no cut given the job market status (sure, today‘s unemployment claims aren‘t red hot, but the slowly rising trend is there in continui
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FX daily: Oil dominates FX, Fed impact secondary
Markets are now speculating on a US military intervention in Iran, and oil prices are jumping again. This has triggered a renewed safe-haven appeal for the dollar, although this appears dependent on the ongoing extraordinary circumstances. Today, the Fed can give the USD some additional support, but
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Oil and the ‘commodity supercycle’ – WTI Crude, NZD/USD, EUR/JPY
Weekly thoughts Have you been paying attention to commodities? People are talking about the next ‘commodity supercycle’. That’s a fun word for all commodity prices going up a lot. The theory goes that it started in 2020 in the aftermath of the pandemic but it’s really only been gold that has been ri
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Today’s economic calendar centers around US CPI
Markets The US and China agreed to restore the Geneva trade truce after a two‐day trade talk marathon in London. Both sides accused each other of violating the terms in recent days but have now found common ground. The news broke overnight and after US trading hours. Asian stock markets welcome the
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US-China trade talks plus economic resilience: A market that looks through the chaos
Key points:Broader risks, but no panic – Political, policy, and institutional uncertainties are rising, but markets remain steady thanks to resilient economic data.Trade talks drag on – US-China discussions continue with fewer quick wins and deeper structural divides, but peak uncertainty appears be
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The boy who cried wolf
S2N spotlight I noticed this divergence in breadth between the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. If you look at the S&P 500, it is looking strong, with the cumulative 52-week high-low line at ATH (all-time highs), with the price chart nearly at an ATH. What I found interesting is that the Nasdaq cumul
