🚨This indicator suggests the S&P 500 could hit 5800 by end of 2024 🤯

The S&P 500 has risen over 11% year-to-date, prompting Wall Street firms to raise their price targets. Historical data suggests that when the index gains 10% or more in the first 100 days of the year, it usually continues to rise. According to Bank of America, average returns for the rest of such years are 7.1%, with a median of 9.3%, potentially pushing the S&P 500 to 5640-5750 by year-end 2024.

In Presidential election years, gains tend to be modest, with the index historically up 63% of the time, averaging -0.9% return and a median of 0.8%. However, the current 10.4% YTD gain in 2024 is notable as the second-best start in an election year since 1928. When the S&P 500 rises in the first 100 days of an election year, it usually continues to rise 93% of the time, with an average return of 10.1% and a median of 8.9%, suggesting a year-end target of around 5730-5800. Historical patterns for all election years indicate the index is up 88% of the time, with average and median returns of 8.8% and 8.5%, respectively, implying a year-end range of 5700-5730.

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