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Price pressures moderated in May despite the trade war
Overview May inflation data was softer than expected despite the tariffs. Underlying price pressures remained on a cooling trend across both the euro area and the US, as well as goods and services. Survey-based US inflation expectations measures spiked sharply higher in April but moderated after the
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All eyes on US-China talks
Last week ended on a positive note. Improved headlines on the trade front between the US and China and a set of better-than-expected US jobs data helped lift the S&P 500 by 1.5% over the week. The Nasdaq 100 rallied 2% despite a sharp selloff in Tesla shares amid a heated dispute between Donald
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The Weekender : the tariff hokey pokey—risk traders strapped to a geopolitical tilt-a-whirl
Markets are now strapped into a geopolitical tilt-a-whirl where trade, capital, and currency policy all spin simultaneously—and no one’s sure who’s manning the controls. So Much For TACO Just when traders thought they could tiptoe into June riding the coattails of a record May melt-up, the tape remi
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Gold open interest hits historic lows despite bullish macro – TDS
This is one of those moments where Gold markets are offering a gift, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. Gold is 'overbought but underowned' in market perception "Aggregate open interest in CME Gold is now approaching extreme lows (425k) that have historically marked lows in Gold pr
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Elliott Wave analysis: dollar index (DXY) completes correction, resumes downtrend
The short-term Elliott Wave analysis for the Dollar Index (DXY) indicates that the cycle from the January 13, 2025 high is unfolding as an impulse pattern, characterized by a five-wave structure moving in the direction of the larger trend. The decline from the January 13, 2025 high began with wave (
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How Trump might bypass US courts to continue his tariff agenda
A US court ruled that President Donald Trump exceeded his authority using the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs. Directly affected by this ruling are the 10-30% tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico, and the rest of the world. The sectoral tariffs on steel, alumin
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JARXE Exchange Observations: Strong Bitcoin Upside Expectations, Short Squeeze May Trigger Accelerated Breakout
The current crypto market maintains an overall bullish trend. Bitcoin is operating within an upward channel, with a key short-term support level at $110,000. The market generally expects that after a pullback to the $100,000–$103,000 range, Bitcoin may resume its upward movement, with targets at $12
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The RBA this morning cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 3.85%
Markets The 30‐yr bond yield at some point yesterday surged more than 13 bps, including last Friday’s late‐session move, to 5.03%. Trump’s Big Beautiful but costly Bill getting shaped in the House only proved Moody’s point for its AAA‐rating downgrade and added fuel to the fire. But the Treasury sel
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Euro Area housing market: Diverse housing landscape showing signs of a recovery
The euro area housing market is a diverse market reflecting an interplay of factors including from monetary policy transmission to demographic developments.Some member states have already seen rising housing prices, but low consumer confidence is holding the market down in others.Lower interest rate
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US Dollar Index falls below 100.50 following Moody’s downgrade of US credit rating
The US Dollar Index faces pressure after Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating by one notch.Moody’s now projects US federal debt to surge to around 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023.US Treasury Secretary Bessent noted that Trump plans to impose tariffs on trade partners that fail in “good f
